Postal Service Mail Carriers

risk level
Based on 191 votes
-4.8 %
by year 2032
or $26.08 per hour
as of 2022

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Automation risk

100% (Imminent Risk)

Imminent Risk (81-100%): Occupations in this level have an extremely high likelihood of being automated in the near future. These jobs consist primarily of repetitive, predictable tasks with little need for human judgment.

More information on what this score is, and how it is calculated is available here.

Some quite important qualities of the job are difficult to automate:

  • Social Perceptiveness

User poll

55% chance of full automation within the next two decades

Our visitors have voted they are unsure if this occupation will be automated. However, the automation risk level we have generated suggests a much higher chance of automation: 100% chance of automation.

What do you think the risk of automation is?

What is the likelihood that Postal Service Mail Carriers will be replaced by robots or artificial intelligence within the next 20 years?


The following graph(s) are included wherever there is a substantial amount of votes to render meaningful data. These visual representations display user poll results over time, providing a significant indication of sentiment trends.

Sentiment over time (yearly)


Very slow growth relative to other professions.

The number of 'Postal Service Mail Carriers' job openings is expected to decline 4.8% by 2032

Total employment, and estimated job openings

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the period between 2021 and 2031
Updated projections are due 09-2023.


Moderately paid relative to other professions

In 2022, the median annual wage for 'Postal Service Mail Carriers' was $54,250, or $26 per hour

'Postal Service Mail Carriers' were paid 17.1% higher than the national median wage, which stood at $46,310

Wages over time

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics


Significantly greater range of job opportunities compared to other professions

As of 2022 there were 326,760 people employed as 'Postal Service Mail Carriers' within the United States.

This represents around 0.22% of the employed workforce across the country

Put another way, around 1 in 452 people are employed as 'Postal Service Mail Carriers'.

Job description

Sort and deliver mail for the United States Postal Service (USPS). Deliver mail on established route by vehicle or on foot. Includes postal service mail carriers employed by USPS contractors.

SOC Code: 43-5052.00


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Leave a comment

Philip Low (Highly likely) says
its a highly repetitive job and easy to replicate although some delivery areas will be automated faster than others
Dec 08, 2023 at 04:58 PM
Jacob Green (Low) says
Being a mail carrier is harder than than it might seem. There is more to it than just putting things in boxes. We deliver in severe weather conditions like blizzards where am AI would have shard time seeing the road.
Jul 13, 2023 at 03:15 AM
grinch (Uncertain) says
Doubt all jobs would suddenly be cut especially because of unions etc. In my country the roads are really rubbish and weather can be especially nasty, not to mention the import costs would likely be high for such technology. Maybe further in future I could see less and less postmen but I highly doubt this would happen for a long time, in any case if this happens then sign me up for the dole and I will live in my parents basement like an incel while watching the world go to ruin.
Jun 11, 2023 at 08:15 AM
Jack (No chance) says
Not feasible in rural areas where requirements and routes are variable and non-standard.
Apr 28, 2023 at 11:19 PM
J (Low) says
I work for USPS as a letter carrier. I can’t imagine management being able to maintain robots when they can hardly update equipment and vehicles as is.
Nov 25, 2022 at 02:43 PM
Sujoi (Highly likely) says
As the development of autonomous drones and self-driving cars continues to improve, the role of the postal man will greatly shrink. I believe that even in the span of a single decade, the job will be considerably automated.
Mar 14, 2022 at 02:33 PM
Not sure but it's a lot of hurdles to overcome. Drones flying around with big boxes everywhere. Sounds cool but realistically in our modern society even is it going to be too much liability? If something falls or destroys packages and people's property then people of course will try and steal from them.
Sep 17, 2021 at 03:01 PM
Dennis says
Even rural mail carriers?
Mar 09, 2021 at 06:53 PM
Charlie(No chance) (No chance) says
I doubt postal mail carriers will be replaced by robots because of strong labor unions.
Feb 23, 2021 at 06:29 PM
Angus (Highly likely) says
There is already post delivery robots in Brisbane suburbs in Queensland, Australia
Aug 31, 2020 at 12:20 AM
NO (Moderate) says
Drone based delivery
Jan 29, 2020 at 10:26 AM
Nancy says
There is human quality to this job that can't be replaced.
Dec 09, 2022 at 03:05 AM
Tony (Moderate) says
It's pretty likely that we will find ways to deliver physical mail to people using machines in the next 20 years. :/
Jan 17, 2020 at 05:35 PM
Jak Aser (Uncertain) says
Depends on a few things:
how much does it takes to develop an autodriven car.
how much it costs.
how much it takes to develop an auto-driven drone.
how to make it to get it directly to your home or mailbox, specially big packages.
how to make it less costly than a human delivering the package.
we have been waiting to the electric car like.... 40 years. it was said we would have it by the year 2000 and... still to many costs.
Oct 31, 2019 at 11:28 AM
Patrik (Uncertain) says
Machines already sort most mail, only needs refinement. Selfdriving cars are on the horizon. We only need to combine the two.
Aug 16, 2019 at 05:45 PM
Nilay (Highly likely) says
This job will be taken over due to the coming of drone delivery.
Jun 24, 2019 at 11:21 AM
Steve Jennings (Highly likely) says
Small robots would be faster and more efficient
May 08, 2019 at 03:39 AM
Yeah until kids on the street light them on fire, break them etc. imagine the repair cost of a couple 100,000 robots. Better off paying people that actually care about customers. You think a mail delivery robot would save an elderly woman from a house fire or notify police of a burglary.
Mar 05, 2023 at 07:19 PM

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