In 2013 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne published a report titled "The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?”. The authors examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation, by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier.
According to their estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. Although the report is specific to the US job market, it is easy to see how this might apply all over the world.
We extracted the jobs and the probability of automation from the report, and used a machine learning algorithm to reproduce the output as closely as possible. We then updated the list of jobs to be in line with those currently published by O*NET, and re-ran the algorithm again using the most recent data available.
The automation risk probabilities we show for each occupation are the result of this process.
We’ve also added some additional information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for each occupation.
Back in early 2019 we started collecting data on what our audience believed the automation risk to be for each occupation.
In 2021 we used the BLS data, our polling data, and the automation risk probabilities to give each occupation a 'job score' between 0 and 10.