Computer Programmers

AUTOMATION RISK
CALCULATED
52%
risk level
POLLING
46%
Based on 8,724 votes
LABOR DEMAND
GROWTH
-10.2 %
by year 2032
WAGES
$97,800
or $47.02 per hour
Volume
132,740
as of 2022
SUMMARY
JOB SCORE
4.7/10

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Automation risk

52% (Moderate Risk)

Moderate Risk (41-60%): Occupations with a moderate risk of automation usually involve routine tasks but still require some human judgment and interaction.

More information on what this score is, and how it is calculated is available here.

Some quite important qualities of the job are difficult to automate:

  • Social Perceptiveness

  • Originality

User poll

46% chance of full automation within the next two decades

Our visitors have voted they are unsure if this occupation will be automated. This assessment is further supported by the calculated automation risk level, which estimates 52% chance of automation.

What do you think the risk of automation is?

What is the likelihood that Computer Programmers will be replaced by robots or artificial intelligence within the next 20 years?






Sentiment

The following graph(s) are included wherever there is a substantial amount of votes to render meaningful data. These visual representations display user poll results over time, providing a significant indication of sentiment trends.

Sentiment over time (quarterly)

Sentiment over time (yearly)

Growth

Very slow growth relative to other professions.

The number of 'Computer Programmers' job openings is expected to decline 10.2% by 2032

Total employment, and estimated job openings

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the period between 2021 and 2031
Updated projections are due 09-2023.

Wages

Very high paid relative to other professions

In 2022, the median annual wage for 'Computer Programmers' was $97,800, or $47 per hour

'Computer Programmers' were paid 111.2% higher than the national median wage, which stood at $46,310

Wages over time

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Volume

Greater range of job opportunities compared to other professions

As of 2022 there were 132,740 people employed as 'Computer Programmers' within the United States.

This represents around 0.09% of the employed workforce across the country

Put another way, around 1 in 1 thousand people are employed as 'Computer Programmers'.

Job description

Create, modify, and test the code and scripts that allow computer applications to run. Work from specifications drawn up by software and web developers or other individuals. May develop and write computer programs to store, locate, and retrieve specific documents, data, and information.

SOC Code: 15-1251.00

Resources

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Comments

Leave a comment

Yoav (Highly likely) says
ChatGPT has an unexpected capability to create and correct code, as well as encyclopedic knowledge of the tools and technologies of the industry. I didn't expect something like it to arrive for another 10-20 years.

At the current rate of progress, AI should surpass most software engineers in its capability to create software solutions.
Jan 19, 2023 at 03:39 PM
Joe says
ChatGPT and AlphaCode. Enough said.
Jan 14, 2023 at 09:32 AM
Damian (Highly likely) says
I know how to automate everything about programming.

No chances that programming as we know it will be still a thing after two decades. One decade is max.
Dec 07, 2022 at 07:02 PM
Moss (Low) says
There is someone to develop and improve these robots, and people with knowledge of high technology may adapt faster to the new eras than other careers.
Nov 15, 2022 at 01:53 AM
Jake (Highly likely) says
Its unstoppable. Once we teach an AI how to teach, they are gonna take over. They will learn to program themselves and we will be doomed.
Oct 31, 2022 at 04:39 PM
Kuba says
AI can take part in the job of computer programmers. Some software requires a lot of coding, but it's trivial to create. This is because you don't need to invent anything and you don't need any creativity.

So, tasks like creating E-Commerce websites can be automated. However, some work will still require real programmers. This work will be more demanding, and you will need to have more skills because easy tasks will be done by AI.
Oct 30, 2022 at 09:35 AM
Marshmello (Low) says
We just made AI, no way we would be conquered ( unless the AI watched the Terminator, or the Age of Ultron and became corrupt.)
Sep 25, 2022 at 03:09 AM
Thiago says
Wouldn't it be too much if robots even stole our jobs as programmers? Then who would program other robots? Who would maintain them?
Sep 23, 2022 at 01:01 AM
BibirMengkeroet (Uncertain) says
Programmer who skilled in all fields wouldn't get replaced by AI (YET). However, web developers have higher risk to be replaced than software developers, because the dataset required to train the AI is very abundant. In fact, you can scrap like 1000 random webpage and use it's source code (Since HTML, CSS, and Javascript is interpreted).

If AI 100% replace programmers, it safe to say, welcome to singularity
Sep 13, 2022 at 11:15 AM
Some Bot (Low) says
Basic coding may be something computers can do in the near future but computers cannot yet collect requirements, collaborate with stakeholders, and design software in any significant way yet and I don't see them being able to do so for quite some time.
Aug 30, 2022 at 06:37 PM
Abdelrahman Hossam (Uncertain) says
When a job disappears, a new type of need is created and a new job is required, so I think the number of jobs will increase.
Jul 11, 2022 at 12:25 PM
Tecc9- (Moderate) says
I think that in the future, we will have government organizations that will balance job opportunities between AI and humans. It feels like a refugee crisis, with people getting insecure about their jobs. However, nothing will likely change.

Personally, I think the AI will not take a slice of the cake. Perhaps the cake is getting bigger, and we will hopefully discover new jobs.
Jul 09, 2022 at 08:51 PM
DogeConomy (Uncertain) says
Artificial Intelligence, such as OpenAI, is in development and has been proven successful at writing lines of code that are compilable with the correct syntax.

However, the original creators of AI are human and will stay that way unless they end up becoming sentient, able to exert control, interpret, and make edits to their own underlying code.
Jun 27, 2022 at 09:46 PM
Jared M (No chance) says
People who need custom software but aren't software engineers don't have the language required to create specific solutions for a problem at hand.

If there isn't a computer programmer there to create the instructions for a tool that solves a certain problem, you are limited by your ability to describe the software you need.

At some point, you will need someone who can turn your wants and needs into a set of instructions, especially when you only have a vague idea of what you want it to do.
Jun 09, 2022 at 10:46 PM
Scion says
I sensed the risk of automation for the role was high, but I didn't figure it'd be that high.

With low-code tools gaining adoption, it's just a matter of time for the tools to morph into total code tools.

This makes the above results believable.
May 28, 2022 at 08:42 AM
Brody Pinto (Low) says
I doubt writing Computer programs that require the awareness of how people use their devices and the design that comes with all of that will be automated within the next 2 decades but I do believe it will happen eventually.
May 05, 2022 at 12:35 AM
OldHasBeenGuy says
20 years of dev experience with 6 in AI/ML, has opinion: coding is a field that by its nature keeps incorporating more automation. There is a library for everything. So what if there are NLP algorithms to help write code? Low code platforms have been around for a while. Coding as a skill never goes away but about every 5 years specific coding practices change as parts of them get automated away.

Around 85% of AI/ML projects fail. That is a track record that says predictive algorithms will probably not have as massive an effect in the short term as people think. However in the long term predictive algorithms will revolutionize software development, enabling coders to get more done with less.

Experienced devs tend to code less as their career advances. They do management or architecture/design more so than straight coding. This is needed because the ability to make informed decisions about technical matters is critical in modern industry. In a more automated world, there will be more designers and PMs than developers.

In summary: Software developers already are getting automated away with a shelf life of 5 years, with or without AI. The need for those who can make decisions in regards to code is not easily replaced by any AI but it can be supplemented by decision support systems.
Apr 26, 2022 at 11:54 PM
iRobot says
It's already happening with GitHub Copilot. To some extent, GitHub Copilot can guess what code you want to write and make suggestions for you. Then, all you have to do is press Tab in Visual Studio Code, and the suggestion will be automatically completed.
Apr 23, 2022 at 12:33 PM
A coder from Google (No chance) says
Self-programming code had been a thing since the beginning of time but it's never been done. We can't even achieve human-level general AI at the moment, an AI capable of creating new code as new bugs / issues / needs arise is virtually impossible
Apr 14, 2022 at 10:54 PM
Blake Senftner (No chance) says
Software engineering requires comprehension, and there is no such thing as artificial comprehension. Yes, you read that right: artificial intelligence does not include artificial comprehension.

AI is an idiot savant that can do, but does not know how or why. It also does not know when given nonsense - it provides an answer anyway. With zero comprehension, it was given junk, and the answer it produced is similar nonsense junk.

Writing software is 1000% comprehension intensive. Sure, trivial software can be glommed together by AI. But software requiring comprehension of concepts and the operation of virtual logical entities for an assessment of integration compatibility (can A & B combine to produce C?) is outside of AI's capabilities.
Apr 10, 2022 at 12:21 PM

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