Computer Programmers




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Automation risk
Moderate Risk (41-60%): Occupations with a moderate risk of automation usually involve routine tasks but still require some human judgment and interaction.
More information on what this score is, and how it is calculated is available here.
User poll
Our visitors have voted they are unsure if this occupation will be automated. This assessment is further supported by the calculated automation risk level, which estimates 52% chance of automation.
What do you think the risk of automation is?
What is the likelihood that Computer Programmers will be replaced by robots or artificial intelligence within the next 20 years?
Sentiment
The following graph(s) are included wherever there is a substantial amount of votes to render meaningful data. These visual representations display user poll results over time, providing a significant indication of sentiment trends.
Sentiment over time (quarterly)
Sentiment over time (yearly)
Growth
The number of 'Computer Programmers' job openings is expected to decline 10.2% by 2031
Total employment, and estimated job openings
Updated projections are due 09-2023.
Wages
In 2022, the median annual wage for 'Computer Programmers' was $97,800, or $47 per hour
'Computer Programmers' were paid 111.2% higher than the national median wage, which stood at $46,310
Wages over time
Volume
As of 2022 there were 132,740 people employed as 'Computer Programmers' within the United States.
This represents around 0.09% of the employed workforce across the country
Put another way, around 1 in 1 thousand people are employed as 'Computer Programmers'.
Job description
Create, modify, and test the code and scripts that allow computer applications to run. Work from specifications drawn up by software and web developers or other individuals. May develop and write computer programs to store, locate, and retrieve specific documents, data, and information.
SOC Code: 15-1251.00
Resources
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Comments
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If AI 100% replace programmers, it safe to say, welcome to singularity
Personally, I think the AI will not take a slice of the cake. Perhaps the cake is getting bigger, and we will hopefully discover new jobs.
However, the original creators of AI are human and will stay that way unless they end up becoming sentient, able to exert control, interpret, and make edits to their own underlying code.
If there isn't a computer programmer there to create the instructions for a tool that solves a certain problem, you are limited by your ability to describe the software you need.
At some point, you will need someone who can turn your wants and needs into a set of instructions, especially when you only have a vague idea of what you want it to do.
With low-code tools gaining adoption, it's just a matter of time for the tools to morph into total code tools.
This makes the above results believable.
Around 85% of AI/ML projects fail. That is a track record that says predictive algorithms will probably not have as massive an effect in the short term as people think. However in the long term predictive algorithms will revolutionize software development, enabling coders to get more done with less.
Experienced devs tend to code less as their career advances. They do management or architecture/design more so than straight coding. This is needed because the ability to make informed decisions about technical matters is critical in modern industry. In a more automated world, there will be more designers and PMs than developers.
In summary: Software developers already are getting automated away with a shelf life of 5 years, with or without AI. The need for those who can make decisions in regards to code is not easily replaced by any AI but it can be supplemented by decision support systems.
AI is an idiot savant that can do, but does not know how or why. It also does not know when given nonsense - it provides an answer anyway. With zero comprehension, it was given junk, and the answer it produced is similar nonsense junk.
Writing software is 1000% comprehension intensive. Sure, trivial software can be glommed together by AI. But software requiring comprehension of concepts and the operation of virtual logical entities for an assessment of integration compatibility (can A & B combine to produce C?) is outside of AI's capabilities.
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