Computer Programmers

High Risk
70%
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Vote Comments (265)
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AUTOMATION RISK
CALCULATED
70%
(High Risk)
POLLING
70%
(High Risk)
Average: 70%
LABOR DEMAND
GROWTH
-9.6%
by year 2033
WAGES
$99,700
or $47.93 per hour
Volume
120,370
as of 2023
SUMMARY
JOB SCORE
3.5/10

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Calculated automation risk

70% (High Risk)

High Risk (61-80%): Jobs in this category face a significant threat from automation, as many of their tasks can be easily automated using current or near-future technologies.

More information on what this score is, and how it is calculated is available here.

Some quite important qualities of the job are difficult to automate:

  • Social Perceptiveness

  • Originality

User poll

70% chance of full automation within the next two decades

Our visitors have voted that it's probable this occupation will be automated. This assessment is further supported by the calculated automation risk level, which estimates 70% chance of automation.

What do you think the risk of automation is?

What is the likelihood that Computer Programmers will be replaced by robots or artificial intelligence within the next 20 years?






Sentiment

The following graph is included wherever there is a substantial amount of votes to render meaningful data. These visual representations display user poll results over time, providing a significant indication of sentiment trends.

Sentiment over time (quarterly)

Sentiment over time (yearly)

Growth

Very slow growth relative to other professions.

The number of 'Computer Programmers' job openings is expected to decline 9.6% by 2033

Total employment, and estimated job openings

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the period between 2023 and 2033
Updated projections are due 09-2025.

Wages

Very high paid relative to other professions

In 2023, the median annual wage for 'Computer Programmers' was $99,700, or $47 per hour

'Computer Programmers' were paid 107.4% higher than the national median wage, which stood at $48,060

Wages over time

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Volume

Greater range of job opportunities compared to other professions

As of 2023 there were 120,370 people employed as 'Computer Programmers' within the United States.

This represents around 0.08% of the employed workforce across the country

Put another way, around 1 in 1 thousand people are employed as 'Computer Programmers'.

Job description

Create, modify, and test the code and scripts that allow computer applications to run. Work from specifications drawn up by software and web developers or other individuals. May develop and write computer programs to store, locate, and retrieve specific documents, data, and information.

SOC Code: 15-1251.00

Comments

Leave a comment

Swayam Bhowmick (Highly likely) 4 days ago
Everyone who's commenting and judging is basing their judgment on the current state of things. But, the current state is rapidly evolving, and most people are failing to account for the trajectory that the progress of AI is taking. 2 years ago, we were laughing at AI-generated videos of Will Smith eating spaghetti; today, the realism sends shivers down our spines. 2 years ago, AI generated broken code, now, it's capabale of somewhat functional code, replacing junior devs entirely.

Please take into account the trajectory of progress rather than the current state of things.
1 0 Reply
Ab (Highly likely) 7 days ago
It does not require any physical interaction with the real world
1 3 Reply
Habs (Uncertain) 14 days ago
Software development includes understanding requirements and talking to customers (who do not know what they want). My job will be heavily automated but not yet to be fully replaced by AI.
1 2 Reply
Name (Low) 1 month ago
AIs kind of suck at programming and logic they always add more bugs into my code
8 4 Reply
A 17 days ago
Currently. What about in 10 years though
5 0 Reply
John 1 month ago
Just as a few other professions, I’d say it would simply be limited to reducing unspecialized, entry-level positions. Those who find a niche would find that programming with chatbots are like lugging a junior dev that doesn’t learn around.
1 0 Reply
Everyone’s in denial 2 months ago
I am not saying I support the automation of everything, it’s just that in reality no one is safe as it accelerates. This is not just an assistant, nor just a displacement of humans, it is the complete replacement of the human mind. Pandora’s box was opened, now we have no idea if we will enter dystopia or utopia...
8 6 Reply
Jordan 17 days ago
No it is not. LLM's don't replicate how human brains work at all.
1 1 Reply
Tony B (Low) 2 months ago
AI has so far been good for created standard well known solutions. It is not good at all at understanding large amounts of existing code.
7 3 Reply
Jersey Jim 1 month ago
Getting better every week. MCP. Augment Code. LLM rules.
2 1 Reply
Mu (Low) 2 months ago
They will be reduced but not entirely replaced. This can be in ai research to improve the programming or new novel types of Research
1 2 Reply
Jacob (Low) 2 months ago
It will change a sofware engineer is still going to be required to check the code. You aren't going to want this to automated that's crazy.
5 0 Reply
Timothy (Moderate) 3 months ago
"For example, tasks or task components that appeal to capacities in which AI systems excel, will have to be less (or less fully) mastered by people, so that less training will probably be required. AI systems are already much better than people at logically and arithmetically correct gathering (selecting) and processing (weighing, prioritizing, analyzing, combining) large amounts of data. They do this quickly, accurately and reliably. They are also more stable (consistent) than humans, have no stress and emotions and have a great perseverance and a much better retention of knowledge and skills than people. As a machine, they serve people completely and without any “self-interest” or “own hidden agenda.”"
0 0 Reply
Michał (Highly likely) 3 months ago
Without knowing programming at this point you can easily write a good program with the help of AI. I completely agree that this work can be automated.
0 7 Reply
Jordan 17 days ago
There's a serious difference between it works and it works correctly. Without understanding the code and testing it, all you've done is make a polished turd.
0 0 Reply
TAmzid2872 (Uncertain) 4 months ago
Programming isnt just about writing code, its about problem solving
10 0 Reply
Sven H. (Highly likely) 4 months ago
AI can already code extremely well; there will be no need for human programmers in the future.
1 6 Reply
Doubtful (Low) 4 months ago
AI is horrible at following instructions, and bad at understanding architecture. Also, as context grows it tends to forget instructions.
7 1 Reply
Jersey Jim 3 months ago
Model Context Protocol helps give AI better context. AI can work across many files now (way better IDE integration has happened in the past 6 months). The limits of AI have dwindled and will continue to dwindle as time goes on. Vibe coding is now a thing and AI can follow directions to build complete mvp's in under an hour.
0 1 Reply
Jordan 17 days ago
MVPs are not working reliable software that solves a real problem.
0 0 Reply
Michael Bohn (Uncertain) 4 months ago
For the AI to work properly, you need people who know how to write the prompts and how to evaluate the written code.
5 2 Reply
Pavel 4 months ago
But if AI becomes as good as humans then why programmers would be ever needed if not those who work on AI itself? Maybe for some complex and big programms people would still be needed.
0 0 Reply
... 4 months ago
How does this relate to programmers? Programmers program not write prompts. Evaluation to code is already possible
0 0 Reply
J 5 months ago
Robots aint gonna code themselves, if we get to that point then that's Skynet/matrix. Aka end of the world for everyone so who cares
8 2 Reply
PossiblyUnemployed 3 months ago
My worry is if future code-generating models can modify itself or the programs it works on towards a specific goal, sort of like an intelligent self-modifying quine.
0 0 Reply
John pork (No chance) 5 months ago
it is because AI and robots require programming and without programmers, they cannot function
1 2 Reply
PotentiallyJobless 3 months ago
It is true that programmers were necessary to create and train the models, but at this point what may be more necessary is just making sure the systems and hardware that keep the AI running don't malfunction. As it is, modern AI is finding ways to modify itself and its environment.
0 0 Reply
Emy (Highly likely) 5 months ago
Even though programming can demand thinking sometimes, 70% of the work is repetitive or the same across different business. Not only that, but 80% of the time you are not solving any complex problem that demands creativity or deep thinking.
7 3 Reply
Jersey Jim 5 months ago
You can convert from one language to another with AI and a developer is not protected by knowing Java vs C#. This further erodes job protection. Recreating the wheel will drastically stop in programming and I'd imagine known problems will converge to one solution.
0 3 Reply
rick 4 months ago
programming is problem resolution. there is not a single solution. lol.
0 0 Reply
@irton (No chance) 6 months ago
Why do they already develop this, and AI is not smart enough to do more? To complement, it is good.
1 5 Reply
Cessna (Uncertain) 6 months ago
Some AI can program or help a person program like chatgpt
3 2 Reply

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