risk level
Based on 430 votes
by year 2032
or $27.09 per hour
as of 2023

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Automation risk

18% (Minimal Risk)

Minimal Risk (0-20%): Occupations in this category have a low probability of being automated, as they typically demand complex problem-solving, creativity, strong interpersonal skills, and a high degree of manual dexterity. These jobs often involve intricate hand movements and precise coordination, making it difficult for machines to replicate the required tasks.

More information on what this score is, and how it is calculated is available here.

Some quite important qualities of the job are difficult to automate:

  • Finger Dexterity

  • Manual Dexterity

User poll

34% chance of full automation within the next two decades

Our visitors have voted there's a low chance this occupation will be automated. This assessment is further supported by the calculated automation risk level, which estimates 18% chance of automation.

What do you think the risk of automation is?

What is the likelihood that Carpenters will be replaced by robots or artificial intelligence within the next 20 years?


The following graph(s) are included wherever there is a substantial amount of votes to render meaningful data. These visual representations display user poll results over time, providing a significant indication of sentiment trends.

Sentiment over time (yearly)


Slow growth relative to other professions.

The number of 'Carpenters' job openings is expected to rise 2.2% by 2032

Total employment, and estimated job openings

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the period between 2021 and 2031
Updated projections are due 09-2023.


Moderately paid relative to other professions

In 2023, the median annual wage for 'Carpenters' was $56,350, or $27 per hour

'Carpenters' were paid 17.2% higher than the national median wage, which stood at $48,060

Wages over time

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics


Significantly greater range of job opportunities compared to other professions

As of 2023 there were 700,290 people employed as 'Carpenters' within the United States.

This represents around 0.46% of the employed workforce across the country

Put another way, around 1 in 216 people are employed as 'Carpenters'.

Job description

Construct, erect, install, or repair structures and fixtures made of wood and comparable materials, such as concrete forms; building frameworks, including partitions, joists, studding, and rafters; and wood stairways, window and door frames, and hardwood floors. May also install cabinets, siding, drywall, and batt or roll insulation. Includes brattice builders who build doors or brattices (ventilation walls or partitions) in underground passageways.

SOC Code: 47-2031.00


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Leave a comment

chippy dan (No chance) says
I'm a chippy, ok furniture can be done by ai, but renovating a house is different, lot's of different repairs
Jan 09, 2023 at 07:32 AM
Lukas (Uncertain) says
Some jobs will definitely be occupied but in the premium segment, where there are extreme accuracy requirements and complex furniture, people will always be needed and wanted even if the jobs could be done by robots.
Nov 10, 2022 at 03:53 PM
Jared Y (No chance) says
A robot cannot build a house, piece by piece.

I'd like to see a robot put breakers into an electrical panel, lay tile in a tight bathroom, hang a cabinet, or install a four-piece crown moulding.

Sure, you can get a 3D-printed concrete house, but you still have to run electrical and plumbing, among other things.

I don't see it happening.
Sep 26, 2022 at 08:57 PM
KevinR says
I would have loved having a couple of robots do the heavy lifting during my 27 years as a carpenter.

AI and ML are here to stay, and I believe the jobs that are created from the advancement of technology will far outweigh the losses. There will also be better jobs that give us a better quality of life.

Don't forget, we'll be building differently with 3D printing.
Sep 05, 2022 at 08:52 PM
T (Low) says
Carpenters do so many different things that require complex ranges of motion.

Some tasks could be replaced but it will likely be a while before robots fully replace human carpenters.
Jun 11, 2022 at 05:17 AM
Darren Maxwell says
Carpentry will never die completely but the money will/already has....
Skirting Architrave handrails will all be pre cut your already starting to see it now so Everything will be pre fab inevitably the pay scale will just go down and down
Oct 26, 2020 at 12:23 PM
Katlynn says
Why do robots have to take our jobs

What happens when we can't do a job then we can't make money to support us.
Mar 14, 2020 at 09:26 PM
S says
That's where welfare comes in.
Mar 26, 2021 at 06:58 PM
Will says
@Katlynn Don't you know we wont have to work everything will be free like it would be if the world was communist
Jul 09, 2021 at 05:25 AM
W R says
Universal Basic Income, Andrew Yang had a plan for this.
Jan 24, 2022 at 05:08 AM
Jason (Low) says
I would agree with installers which are most carpenters today as I am not I am a custom designer/build from furniture to homes to custom interiors I can build anything from raw materials

There are few carpenters left like me I never feel when the economy, tanks
Mar 02, 2020 at 12:09 PM
BOB da Builder (No chance) says
movement /and split dissensions over thousands of variables
Feb 02, 2020 at 01:27 PM
Nick Bronnenmayer (Low) says
I have a lot of different tasks to do and moving to my working positions needs climbing or crawling. Standard houses can be made bi robots, but repairing a 100 year's old roof will stay a job for humans more than 30 years.
Dec 17, 2019 at 06:04 PM
Drew says
Not unless they just build the whole roof system that they can use a crane
Sep 11, 2022 at 12:58 AM
Kieran Green (Low) says
I can see it likely that new build houses will be built by robots but I do t think they will be able to retro fit houses which have already been built by humans. And there are still and will be millions of houses to retro fit in decades to come.
Dec 08, 2019 at 11:38 AM
Manuel Castillo (No chance) says
Computers will never be able to problem solve real world situations when it comes to construction whether it's structural, finish and or scenic. Carpenters will not and cannot be replaced by computer.
Oct 05, 2019 at 03:07 PM
Henrik Nielsen says
I mean, its possible, BUT it will require a robot that can move as freely as humans, think with the same level of intelligence and "emotion" as humans (as a captender making a tough call, you think what would the client like, maybe i should focus on making this look good, But how does a robot know what "looks good" under extremely specific situations)

Every job is different, from the setting/location, weather, what and how the client wants, improvising and changing cuts/plans/drawing based on the house/job. No carpenter has ever made a cut without accounting for errors in the house from previous construction.

robots might replace carpenders, electricians, plummers, and all these trades. BUT it will not be easy, like at all. would you hire a robot to do the job a human can do, but worse?
Aug 12, 2019 at 10:19 AM
Mike says
What you describe as the human element "emotion" is nothing more than an organic algorithm. It will be created in machines and its possible that AI and robots may be able to develop more "emotion" than even humans are capable of. The short of the long is that robots and AI will become better at absolutely everything, and in ways that we will never be able to even comprehend. It's best to just work at what we can while we still can, and to understand that the future will be nothing like this blast off we're in the midst of.
Sep 26, 2019 at 04:06 PM
zack says
Jul 15, 2019 at 01:54 PM
He says
Carpentry is a skilled trade. There's no mass production, you have to think carefully, and good communication is also necessary.
Mar 26, 2019 at 01:01 PM
TJ says
no way, no how

there's just too many variables involved on a day to day basis, not to mention robotics is pretty far away from having viable robots that can actually do the work.
Mar 12, 2019 at 03:32 AM

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