汽车服务技术员和机械师

中等风险
47%
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投票 评论 (25)
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自动化风险
计算出的
58%
(中等风险)
投票
36%
(低风险)
Average: 47%
劳动力需求
增长
2.7%
到2033年
工资
$47,770
或每小时 $22.96
体积
676,570
截至 2023
摘要
工作评分
4.7/10

人们还浏览了

计算自动化风险

58% (中等风险)

中等风险(41-60%):中等风险的职业通常涉及常规任务,但仍需要一些人类的判断和交互。

有关这个分数是什么以及如何计算的更多信息可在这里找到。

工作中的一些非常重要的品质很难实现自动化:

  • 狭窄的工作空间,尴尬的姿势

工作中的一些相当重要的品质难以自动化:

  • 手工熟练度

  • 手指灵巧

  • 社会洞察力

用户投票

在接下来的二十年内,实现全自动化的可能性为36%

我们的访客投票表示,这个职业被自动化的可能性很低。 然而,我们生成的自动化风险等级暗示了更高的自动化可能性:58%的自动化机会。

你认为自动化的风险是什么?

汽车服务技术员和机械师在未来20年内被机器人或人工智能取代的可能性有多大?






情感

以下图表在有大量投票数据时会显示。这些可视化图表展示了用户投票结果随时间的变化,提供了情感趋势的重要指示。

随着时间(每年)的情绪变化

增长

相对于其他职业,增长缓慢

预计"Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics"的工作空缺数量将在2033内增长2.7%

总就业人数和预计的职位空缺

* 根据劳工统计局的数据,该数据涵盖了从2021到2031的期间。
更新的预测将在09-2024到期.

工资

相对于其他职业来说薪资较低

在2023,'Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics'的年度中位数工资为$47,770,或每小时$22。

' Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics '的薪酬比全国中位工资低0.6%,全国中位工资为$48,060。

随着时间推移的工资

* 来自美国劳工统计局的数据

体积

与其他职业相比,明显更多的工作机会范围。

截至2023,在美国有676,570人被雇佣为'Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics'。

这代表了全国就业劳动力的大约0.45%

换句话说,大约每224人中就有1人被雇佣为“Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics”。

工作描述

诊断,调整,修理或彻底检修汽车。

SOC Code: 49-3023.00

资源

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评论

Leave a comment

Joshua (低) 1 month ago
Because vehicles are all different eachother and require a lot of human judgement and quick thought to process and diagnose faults and services
0 0 Reply
Not today (没有机会) 6 months ago
Stripped bolts, damaged/worn parts, there is no way a computer can find a leak that only shows a small drip from the cooling system or remove a dash to replace a part.
1 0 Reply
LeRoy (没有机会) 6 months ago
The infinite probability of small and insignificant things that can go wrong to set EVEN ONE DTC off cannot be computed by a machine, tested by a machine (if the fault Is in the wiring harness, or other wiring diagram), or fixed by a machine without that EXACT issue being programmed for IF it is even programmed for, and had the ability to fix said issue. Mechanics and technicians like myself are a dying breed.
1 0 Reply
Timmy Martin (没有机会) 1 year ago
The pathway to automating the role of a technician I see would first require modular vehicle construction. Once vehicles have easily replaced and accessible modules i.e. a "front right drive motor assembly". an automated system could isolate the concern to a general module and with the removal of a handful of accessible fasteners could remove the whole module and replace it. With one large fastener at the top of the strut tower two large fasteners on the lower control arm and one large electrical connector, the entire module is swapped and sent for rebuild.
0 0 Reply
Tom B 1 year ago
Somewhere, right now a car company engineering group is working on a vehicle design that is centered around supporting service by robotics, and also developing the compatible robots. In about 5 years you will see basic service robots deployed, and within 10 years at least 50% of the work can be delegated to robots. (for new car dealerships) AI and big data will handle the majority of failure diagnosis, with diagnostics over the air and onboard computer software updates over the air. If surgeons are already being displaced by robotics for some types of surgeries, when the cost of robotics comes down almost any skilled manual labor can be displaced.
0 2 Reply
Mestica 1 year ago
There are simply too many variables, people interactions, and different levels of abuse and care that each vehicle receives.
0 0 Reply
Scott (没有机会) 1 year ago
I've been an auto technician for about 37 years now. When I started working on cars computers didn't exist in cars yet. Now some cars have upwards of 15 computers that do everything from working a convertible top to driving a vehicle autonomously. That's a big leap in 37 years but I just don't think that robots could replace the parts we replace or diagnose a problem that humans can. I just don't think its possible. Not now. Not in 50 years. Yes cars will become smarter and have more computers but I still think there will always be a need for a human mechanic to work on them.

Also in my opinion cars haven't gotten any better than they were in the 70s or 80s just different problems and different ways to diagnose and repair them. I've forgotten more than a lot of guys in their 30s and even 40s have learned. I think I was blessed to have become a Mechanic when I did. I've seen and learned a lot more in 37 years than I think most techs will learn in the next 35 or 40 years. I became a mechanic in a time when computers didn't exist in cars I remember how may shops went out of business when Antilock brakes came out.

I'm a multiple times A.S.E. Master Technician. Still learning today still wrenching and I will to the end. I actually enjoyed it more 25 or 30 years ago but I love some of the challenges techs face today. I'm always waiting for that problem no one can figure out and I figure it out.

All the Techs my age know exactly what I'm saying we've all been there and been that guy to fix it. I doubt any robot could do all the things we have to do. It just doesn't seem possible.
0 0 Reply
Alec (低) 1 year ago
As cars get more advanced it will be harder to work on them and at the rate technology is progressing it seems unlikely that 20 years from now computers will be doing all the work on cars, humans are a lot more likely to be needed but will have technological aid
0 0 Reply
Siprico (极有可能) 1 year ago
Corporations will always look for the most cost effective way to increase the bottom line, corporations are not concerned with humanity or culture unless it makes them money.
0 0 Reply
Gael Gay Gaylord (低) 2 years ago
Robots working on cars would be bad, they do already create cars but I think its better if we people fix the cars and not have them create and fix them too (I'm gonna be an automotive mechanic sooner or later)
0 0 Reply
John 2 years ago
For maintenance, sure, but not every car is exactly the same. This would be one of the last to go. Anyone with a computer job or repetitive task will go first. Look at nursing, they said like 1.5%, and this is 55%... what? You check the temperature of a patient, then play on Facebook and complain about work for 3 hours. Lol. Definitely going to replace most of the basic ones.
0 0 Reply
Nicholas D'Amico (低) 2 years ago
Assembly and manufacturing will be automated. Minor service jobs, like fluid changes, will undoubtedly be automated away.

However, troubleshooting and repairing vehicles with problems that aren't related to recurring service will not be automated away.

With this in mind, I think that the market for mechanics will actually increase due to the automation of vehicles on the road. More vehicles mean more mechanics - more jiffy lube robot techs and more certified mechanics in the future.
0 0 Reply
Alex 3 years ago
Not robots but 'electric cars will reduce maintenance by 90 per cent' - Sandy Munro
0 0 Reply
Dean (没有机会) 3 years ago
There simply is to many variables/people interactions that have to happen/every vehicle is different in the amount of abuse and care towards that vehicle
0 0 Reply
Troy (没有机会) 3 years ago
They won't be able to diagnose little problems.
0 0 Reply
Jarno 3 years ago
Totally agree with the comments here. You’d need a super AI just to recognize the wear and/or damage. Then it also needs to think of a way to actually do it... and then you’d need a super-robot to be actually able to do the very diverse physical stuff. (Arms? Tools?)

It wouldn’t be cost effective to design and build such a robot anytime soon.

This job is super under-appreciated in my opinion.
0 0 Reply
Siprico 1 year ago
What is "super" AI? Seeing as every point I've read so far only takes into account the current(2023) state of the industry with out implementing the advances in the industry that would naturally happen with the passing of time. Once You apply this logical progression of the industry you must also take into account that advancements in the computer/robotics world are much more impactful and happen at an increasingly increased rate. "Robots will never be able to build a car." This used to be the motto; but as we all know that industry was quickly taken over by automation, and tech has only gotten exponentially more advanced since that time.
0 0 Reply
Rick (低) 4 years ago
Besides diagnostics there are to many variables for a robot to make the actual repairs.
0 0 Reply
Sorry robots will take your jobs 3 years ago
They do have arms fingers and A.I. would allow them to access info from any related and applicable book, manual, or source...
0 0 Reply
Mike 1 year ago
God bless you
First time robot skins his knuckle
Who’s going to fix that
0 0 Reply
Maybe 50 years. (没有机会) 4 years ago
Unless we get self thinking robots that can mimic and access repair books and find problems very unlikely.

They would need arms for one.
1 0 Reply
jim beam (低) 5 years ago
Its WAYYYYYYY more complicated then you think
0 0 Reply
john (没有机会) 5 years ago
robots can not detect the slightest repair
0 0 Reply

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