汽车服务技术员和机械师

中等风险
43%

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自动化风险
计算出的
58%
(中等风险)
投票
28%
(低风险, 根据 574 票的投票结果)
Average: 43%
劳动力需求
增长
2.7%
到2033年
工资
$47,770
或每小时 $22.96
体积
676,570
截至 2023
摘要
这个雪花图案展示了什么?
雪花是五个徽章的视觉总结:自动化风险(计算得出)、风险(投票得出)、增长、工资和体积。它为你提供了一个职业概况的即时快照。雪花的颜色与其大小有关。与其他职业相比,某个职业的得分越好,雪花就会变得越大且越绿。
工作评分
5.2/10
这是什么?
工作评分(越高越好):

我们使用四个因素对工作进行评分。这些是:

- 被自动化的可能性
- 工作增长
- 工资
- 可用职位的数量

这些是求职时需要考虑的一些关键事项。

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电工 计算机程序员 律师 商业飞行员 机械工程师

计算自动化风险

58% (中等风险)

中等风险(41-60%):中等风险的职业通常涉及常规任务,但仍需要一些人类的判断和交互。

有关这个分数是什么以及如何计算的更多信息可在这里找到。

工作中的一些非常重要的品质很难实现自动化:

  • 狭窄的工作空间,尴尬的姿势

工作中的一些相当重要的品质难以自动化:

  • 手工熟练度

  • 手指灵巧

  • 社会洞察力

用户投票

在接下来的二十年内,实现全自动化的可能性为28%

我们的访客投票表示,这个职业被自动化的可能性很低。 然而,我们生成的自动化风险等级暗示了更高的自动化可能性:58%的自动化机会。

你认为自动化的风险是什么?

汽车服务技术员和机械师在未来20年内被机器人或人工智能取代的可能性有多大?

情感

以下图表显示了在有足够投票的情况下生成的有意义数据。它展示了用户投票结果随时间的变化,清晰地指示了情感趋势。

随着时间(每年)的情绪变化

增长

相对于其他职业,增长缓慢

预计"Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics"的工作空缺数量将在2033内增长2.7%

总就业人数和预计的职位空缺

* 根据劳工统计局的数据,该数据涵盖了从2023到2033的期间。
更新的预测将在09-2025到期.

工资

相对于其他职业来说薪资较低

在2023,'Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics'的年度中位数工资为$47,770,或每小时$23。

' Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics '的薪酬比全国中位工资低0.6%,全国中位工资为$48,060。

随着时间推移的工资

* 来自美国劳工统计局的数据

体积

与其他职业相比,明显更多的工作机会范围。

截至2023,在美国有676,570人被雇佣为'Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics'。

这代表了全国就业劳动力的大约0.45%

换句话说,大约每224人中就有1人被雇佣为“Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics”。

工作描述

诊断,调整,修理或彻底检修汽车。

SOC Code: 49-3023.00

评论 (31)

发表评论
Joshua (低)
10 11月 2024 13:27
Because vehicles are all different eachother and require a lot of human judgement and quick thought to process and diagnose faults and services
Not today (没有机会)
03 7月 2024 11:55
Stripped bolts, damaged/worn parts, there is no way a computer can find a leak that only shows a small drip from the cooling system or remove a dash to replace a part.
Jim
01 7月 2025 14:51
Tesla / electric cars (way less moving parts) need less repair (unless in an accident -> then the cars are basically trash -> buy a new one and don't repair). I agree mechanics can't be replaced, but DIY fixes with AI assistance and better engineered cars from AI likely will decrease demand for mechanics. Leading to either a smaller pool of mechanics (who'll make more money) or just reduced incomes across the whole field.
A.S
31 7月 2025 17:16
Tesla is actually a good example why AI will struggle performing diagnostics. Teslas in house mechanics have plenty of work due to environmental factors. For example a rat pissed on a ground connection thats on a terminating module for a specific private network. The robot can’t communicate with that module same as the person cant. However the human can smell the presence of rats even if its not visible and use that input to realize what to start checking.
LeRoy (没有机会)
02 7月 2024 00:23
The infinite probability of small and insignificant things that can go wrong to set EVEN ONE DTC off cannot be computed by a machine, tested by a machine (if the fault Is in the wiring harness, or other wiring diagram), or fixed by a machine without that EXACT issue being programmed for IF it is even programmed for, and had the ability to fix said issue. Mechanics and technicians like myself are a dying breed.
Scott (没有机会)
04 5月 2023 02:45
I've been an auto technician for about 37 years now. When I started working on cars computers didn't exist in cars yet. Now some cars have upwards of 15 computers that do everything from working a convertible top to driving a vehicle autonomously. That's a big leap in 37 years but I just don't think that robots could replace the parts we replace or diagnose a problem that humans can. I just don't think its possible. Not now. Not in 50 years. Yes cars will become smarter and have more computers but I still think there will always be a need for a human mechanic to work on them.

Also in my opinion cars haven't gotten any better than they were in the 70s or 80s just different problems and different ways to diagnose and repair them. I've forgotten more than a lot of guys in their 30s and even 40s have learned. I think I was blessed to have become a Mechanic when I did. I've seen and learned a lot more in 37 years than I think most techs will learn in the next 35 or 40 years. I became a mechanic in a time when computers didn't exist in cars I remember how may shops went out of business when Antilock brakes came out.

I'm a multiple times A.S.E. Master Technician. Still learning today still wrenching and I will to the end. I actually enjoyed it more 25 or 30 years ago but I love some of the challenges techs face today. I'm always waiting for that problem no one can figure out and I figure it out.

All the Techs my age know exactly what I'm saying we've all been there and been that guy to fix it. I doubt any robot could do all the things we have to do. It just doesn't seem possible.
A.S (低)
31 7月 2025 17:12
Illogical diagnostics from non specific failures thats are undocumented. Micro dexterity in extremely cramped areas ie repairing a single wire on the back side of a harness under a dash.
Klaus (低)
11 8月 2025 00:14
many parts are just to difficult to reach, building a robot for all of that would require investments that are probably higher than lifespan ammortization
Scott (低)
03 7月 2025 18:48
Manual dexterity
Difficult access to components
Mestica
22 5月 2023 22:29
There are simply too many variables, people interactions, and different levels of abuse and care that each vehicle receives.
Alec (低)
14 4月 2023 14:48
As cars get more advanced it will be harder to work on them and at the rate technology is progressing it seems unlikely that 20 years from now computers will be doing all the work on cars, humans are a lot more likely to be needed but will have technological aid
Siprico (极有可能)
28 3月 2023 17:52
Corporations will always look for the most cost effective way to increase the bottom line, corporations are not concerned with humanity or culture unless it makes them money.
Alex
30 8月 2021 00:03
Not robots but 'electric cars will reduce maintenance by 90 per cent' - Sandy Munro
Troy (没有机会)
14 5月 2021 12:09
They won't be able to diagnose little problems.
Maybe 50 years. (没有机会)
05 5月 2020 11:05
Unless we get self thinking robots that can mimic and access repair books and find problems very unlikely. They would need arms for one.
jim beam (低)
12 11月 2019 13:17
Its WAYYYYYYY more complicated then you think
aaa
30 3月 2019 23:05
Eventually yes, but just don't see it happening in the next 20 years.
jason
01 10月 2019 15:40
right there with u brother F**k robots
Timmy Martin (没有机会)
27 10月 2023 14:50
The pathway to automating the role of a technician I see would first require modular vehicle construction. Once vehicles have easily replaced and accessible modules i.e. a "front right drive motor assembly". an automated system could isolate the concern to a general module and with the removal of a handful of accessible fasteners could remove the whole module and replace it. With one large fastener at the top of the strut tower two large fasteners on the lower control arm and one large electrical connector, the entire module is swapped and sent for rebuild.
John
14 2月 2022 04:51
For maintenance, sure, but not every car is exactly the same. This would be one of the last to go. Anyone with a computer job or repetitive task will go first. Look at nursing, they said like 1.5%, and this is 55%... what? You check the temperature of a patient, then play on Facebook and complain about work for 3 hours. Lol. Definitely going to replace most of the basic ones.
Nicholas D'Amico (低)
06 1月 2022 19:21
Assembly and manufacturing will be automated. Minor service jobs, like fluid changes, will undoubtedly be automated away.

However, troubleshooting and repairing vehicles with problems that aren't related to recurring service will not be automated away.

With this in mind, I think that the market for mechanics will actually increase due to the automation of vehicles on the road. More vehicles mean more mechanics - more jiffy lube robot techs and more certified mechanics in the future.
Dean (没有机会)
27 5月 2021 03:19
There simply is to many variables/people interactions that have to happen/every vehicle is different in the amount of abuse and care towards that vehicle
Jarno
09 1月 2021 11:08
Totally agree with the comments here. You’d need a super AI just to recognize the wear and/or damage. Then it also needs to think of a way to actually do it... and then you’d need a super-robot to be actually able to do the very diverse physical stuff. (Arms? Tools?) It wouldn’t be cost effective to design and build such a robot anytime soon. This job is super under-appreciated in my opinion.
Siprico
28 3月 2023 18:02
What is "super" AI? Seeing as every point I've read so far only takes into account the current(2023) state of the industry with out implementing the advances in the industry that would naturally happen with the passing of time. Once You apply this logical progression of the industry you must also take into account that advancements in the computer/robotics world are much more impactful and happen at an increasingly increased rate. "Robots will never be able to build a car." This used to be the motto; but as we all know that industry was quickly taken over by automation, and tech has only gotten exponentially more advanced since that time.

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