概述
自动化风险
2. 用户投票
3. 增长
工资
5. 体积
描述
资源
评论

计算机程序员

高风险
70%
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与朋友和家人分享您的结果。
投票 评论 (277)
或者，更深入地探索这个职业...
自动化风险
计算出的
70%
(高风险)
投票
71%
(高风险)
Average: 70%
劳动力需求
增长
-9.6%
到2033年
工资
$99,700
或每小时 $47.93
体积
120,370
截至 2023
摘要
工作评分
3.5/10

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律师
网页开发者
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演员
计算机系统工程师/架构师

计算自动化风险

70% (高风险)

高风险（61-80%）：这个类别的工作面临着来自自动化的重大威胁，因为他们的许多任务可以使用当前或近期的技术轻松自动化。

有关这个分数是什么以及如何计算的更多信息可在这里找到。

工作中的一些相当重要的品质难以自动化：

  • 社会洞察力

  • 原创性

用户投票

在接下来的二十年内，实现全自动化的可能性为71%。

我们的访客投票认为，这个职业很可能会被自动化。 这个评估进一步得到了通过计算得出的自动化风险等级的支持，该等级预计有70%的机会实现自动化。

你认为自动化的风险是什么？

计算机程序员在未来20年内被机器人或人工智能取代的可能性有多大？






情感

以下图表在有大量投票数据时会显示。这些可视化图表展示了用户投票结果随时间的变化，提供了情感趋势的重要指示。

随着时间的推移的情绪（季度）

随着时间（每年）的情绪变化

增长

相对于其他职业，增长非常缓慢。

预计到2033，"Computer Programmers"职位的空缺数量将减少9.6%。

总就业人数和预计的职位空缺

* 根据劳工统计局的数据，该数据涵盖了从2023到2033的期间。
更新的预测将在09-2025到期.

工资

相对于其他职业，薪酬非常高。

在2023，'Computer Programmers'的年度中位数工资为$99,700，或每小时$47。

'Computer Programmers'的薪资比全国中位工资高107.4%，全国中位工资为$48,060。

随着时间推移的工资

* 来自美国劳工统计局的数据

体积

与其他职业相比，更大的就业机会范围

截至2023，在美国有120,370人被雇佣为'Computer Programmers'。

这代表了全国就业劳动力的大约0.08%

换句话说，大约每1 千人中就有1人被雇佣为“Computer Programmers”。

工作描述

创建、修改和测试允许计算机应用程序运行的代码和脚本。根据软件和网页开发人员或其他个人制定的规格进行工作。可能会开发并编写计算机程序来存储、定位和检索特定的文件、数据和信息。

SOC Code: 15-1251.00

评论

Leave a comment

Shadencus (低) 2 months ago
Because programming good maintainable code requires understanding the greater project structure and deciding whats important and whats isn't. Also many programming problems require unique solutions, that may be similiar to each other but fundmentally different.
So its pretty hard to train an ai that can be adapted to every it infrastrcuture. It also is a risk since it would mean giving ai access to 100% of the system, which is a concerning security risk.
One day there may be an ai that can do that, but even then it will require programmers that maintain the ai and check/test code that it wrote since someone will need to take responsbility for what the ai does. And since i cant even gurantee my own code to work at all times in different cases, I sure as hell wont take responbility for some ai code no matter how good the ai is
3 1 Reply
Jim C. 1 month ago
They don't care about code quality. If it works, it's good enough. Look at the video game industry. They release broken crap and fix it later. All companies have switched to Unreal to save money and have a replaceable talent pool. All unique / groundup solutions are going to disappear.

PR review is getting handled by AI now. Gemini, Copilot, and CodeRabbit are taking over.

Security has always been weak. They just force 2 factor and call it a day. Look at the NPM supply attacks because one guy took the bait on an email.
1 3 Reply
Aleksander 2 months ago
After reading some of the comments. Here is my take on it. AI can give you a doctor diagnosis based pictures and laboratory samples. That diagnosis can be correct and human doctor can make a mistake and give the wrong diagnosis based on the same case. But ... AI can never replace human doctors not now not in the following 20 years. Programmers are in the same fold.
1 1 Reply
Sinus46 (低) 2 months ago
AI cannot create new content outside of the data it was trained on. There is no way that an AI can write an entire new computer program without first looking at actual programs written by humans
3 2 Reply
Francesco Giovannini (低) 2 months ago
Contrary to popular belief, the work of a quality programmer is very creative and is not easily replaceable by automated processes.
2 1 Reply
Mark Orsted (低) 3 months ago
I think that we cannot trust software to understand the human experience. I use agentic and non-agentic AI to help code now, after 30 years doing this, and it's primary benefit is saving me from typing a lot of code that I know how to write, and can confirm is written properly, or correct as needed. The "correct as needed" factor is VERY high still.
3 3 Reply
Dev (适度) 3 months ago
AI adds another attack surface to software development companies
1 1 Reply
Titus (极有可能) 3 months ago
Once A.I. overtakes human intelligence it will write billions of lines of code error free with simple prompts from any person wanting a digital product. Why would any company need overpaid, error prone people at that point. Learn a trade quickly programmers!
1 16 Reply
Jim 2 months ago
AI is not intelligent at all. It uses basic pattern matching and heuristics. That is why it needs massive amounts of training data, most of which is created by companies. This has big limitations and second order effects like how AI will be biased according to data (Facial recognition software labels black people gorillas, etc, grok with neo-nazi views).
4 2 Reply
Swayam Bhowmick (极有可能) 3 months ago
Everyone who's commenting and judging is basing their judgment on the current state of things. But, the current state is rapidly evolving, and most people are failing to account for the trajectory that the progress of AI is taking. 2 years ago, we were laughing at AI-generated videos of Will Smith eating spaghetti; today, the realism sends shivers down our spines. 2 years ago, AI generated broken code, now, it's capabale of somewhat functional code, replacing junior devs entirely.

Please take into account the trajectory of progress rather than the current state of things.
8 6 Reply
Mel Medarda 11 days ago
We don't know the trajectory. We only know that for now, progress has plateaued.

But though AI (= LLMs) has gotten better in the sense of creating more complex outputs, it otherwise suffers from exactly the same problems as early versions: no compositionality, no continual learning, no consistency, and no self-correction.

If you ask it to fix a certain bug fix in a complex codebase, you have a high chance that it also starts to change something completely unrelated. It doesn't really grasp how precisely elements make up the complex whole; instead, it applies pattern-matching, by which it gets misled. You can waste days with AI on what would be a five-minute manual fix.

Also, junior devs' job isn't to churn out mediocre code for generic, long-solved tasks or create the 1000th to-do list app. Instead, they get onboarded and are supposed to familiarize themselves with your codebase to improve it. But you know that "PT" in ChatGPT stands for "pre-trained?" So AI doesn't learn anything new. AI is like suffering from anterograde amnesia.

Anyway, neither apps nor code are like a commodity where "more is better". In the end, the point is to create something new. Otherwise there is not much point: just use an already existing and tested library. And it's exactly the "new" part where AI sucks because it struggles to transcend its training data.

So no, AI is incapable of replacing junior devs.

It would have a lot of immediate positive effects if AI worked like you describe: it would insanely empower open-source projects (often lacking maintainers) to fix all their long lists of bugs or introduce new features. But this is not what we observe at all. Because AI is overhyped and underdelivers.
0 1 Reply
Swayam Bhowmick 5 days ago
"AI is incapable of replacing junior devs."
-> MNCs keep laying off juniors while recording profits. Why? Because they have trained their AIs to do the jobs of 100s of people. Where they needed 100 people, they only need 1 now.
-> OpenAI just hired ex-bankers to develop financial AIs that will eventually replace junior finance professionals in their company. Others are following suit.
-> Salesforce has openly admitted to cutting jobs because of AI. So have many other top companies.

Don't get me wrong, I think AI is way off from completely replacing digital labour. I almost agree with you on most of your points.

But it's getting there, and it's getting there quickly. It's only a matter of time until researchers develop a new system that supersedes transformer models. And judging by the Billions being burned every day on AI research, it's almost inevitable.

I think you'll find the "AI 2027" paper very interesting. Please do have a read. And thanks for your reply :)
0 0 Reply
Ab (极有可能) 4 months ago
It does not require any physical interaction with the real world
1 13 Reply
Habs (不确定) 4 months ago
Software development includes understanding requirements and talking to customers (who do not know what they want). My job will be heavily automated but not yet to be fully replaced by AI.
2 3 Reply
Name (低) 4 months ago
AIs kind of suck at programming and logic they always add more bugs into my code
12 5 Reply
A 4 months ago
Currently. What about in 10 years though
10 3 Reply
John 4 months ago
Just as a few other professions, I’d say it would simply be limited to reducing unspecialized, entry-level positions. Those who find a niche would find that programming with chatbots are like lugging a junior dev that doesn’t learn around.
1 1 Reply
Everyone’s in denial 5 months ago
I am not saying I support the automation of everything, it’s just that in reality no one is safe as it accelerates. This is not just an assistant, nor just a displacement of humans, it is the complete replacement of the human mind. Pandora’s box was opened, now we have no idea if we will enter dystopia or utopia...
9 7 Reply
Jordan 4 months ago
No it is not. LLM's don't replicate how human brains work at all.
4 3 Reply
Tony B (低) 5 months ago
AI has so far been good for created standard well known solutions. It is not good at all at understanding large amounts of existing code.
8 4 Reply
Jersey Jim 5 months ago
Getting better every week. MCP. Augment Code. LLM rules.
2 3 Reply
Shadencus 2 months ago
Doesn't matter since it not only needs to understand the code but also the tech stack(Azure, Django, bamboo, etc.) which runs the code and even if you train your ai for that, that its only useful for the code in that specific environment. And I dont even want to start about security risks
0 1 Reply
Mu (低) 5 months ago
They will be reduced but not entirely replaced. This can be in ai research to improve the programming or new novel types of Research
1 3 Reply
Jacob (低) 6 months ago
It will change a sofware engineer is still going to be required to check the code. You aren't going to want this to automated that's crazy.
5 1 Reply
Timothy (适度) 6 months ago
"For example, tasks or task components that appeal to capacities in which AI systems excel, will have to be less (or less fully) mastered by people, so that less training will probably be required. AI systems are already much better than people at logically and arithmetically correct gathering (selecting) and processing (weighing, prioritizing, analyzing, combining) large amounts of data. They do this quickly, accurately and reliably. They are also more stable (consistent) than humans, have no stress and emotions and have a great perseverance and a much better retention of knowledge and skills than people. As a machine, they serve people completely and without any “self-interest” or “own hidden agenda.”"
0 1 Reply
Michał (极有可能) 6 months ago
Without knowing programming at this point you can easily write a good program with the help of AI. I completely agree that this work can be automated.
2 10 Reply
Jordan 4 months ago
There's a serious difference between it works and it works correctly. Without understanding the code and testing it, all you've done is make a polished turd.
2 1 Reply
TAmzid2872 (不确定) 7 months ago
Programming isnt just about writing code, its about problem solving
12 1 Reply
Sven H. (极有可能) 7 months ago
AI can already code extremely well; there will be no need for human programmers in the future.
1 9 Reply

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