概述
自动化风险
2. 用户投票
3. 增长
工资
5. 体积
描述
资源
评论

计算机程序员

高风险
70%
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投票 评论 (265)
或者，更深入地探索这个职业...
自动化风险
计算出的
70%
(高风险)
投票
70%
(高风险)
Average: 70%
劳动力需求
增长
-9.6%
到2033年
工资
$99,700
或每小时 $47.93
体积
120,370
截至 2023
摘要
工作评分
3.5/10

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律师
网页开发者
平面设计师
演员
计算机系统工程师/架构师

计算自动化风险

70% (高风险)

高风险（61-80%）：这个类别的工作面临着来自自动化的重大威胁，因为他们的许多任务可以使用当前或近期的技术轻松自动化。

有关这个分数是什么以及如何计算的更多信息可在这里找到。

工作中的一些相当重要的品质难以自动化：

  • 社会洞察力

  • 原创性

用户投票

在接下来的二十年内，实现全自动化的可能性为70%。

我们的访客投票认为，这个职业很可能会被自动化。 这个评估进一步得到了通过计算得出的自动化风险等级的支持，该等级预计有70%的机会实现自动化。

你认为自动化的风险是什么？

计算机程序员在未来20年内被机器人或人工智能取代的可能性有多大？






情感

以下图表在有大量投票数据时会显示。这些可视化图表展示了用户投票结果随时间的变化，提供了情感趋势的重要指示。

随着时间的推移的情绪（季度）

随着时间（每年）的情绪变化

增长

相对于其他职业，增长非常缓慢。

预计到2033，"Computer Programmers"职位的空缺数量将减少9.6%。

总就业人数和预计的职位空缺

* 根据劳工统计局的数据，该数据涵盖了从2023到2033的期间。
更新的预测将在09-2025到期.

工资

相对于其他职业，薪酬非常高。

在2023，'Computer Programmers'的年度中位数工资为$99,700，或每小时$47。

'Computer Programmers'的薪资比全国中位工资高107.4%，全国中位工资为$48,060。

随着时间推移的工资

* 来自美国劳工统计局的数据

体积

与其他职业相比，更大的就业机会范围

截至2023，在美国有120,370人被雇佣为'Computer Programmers'。

这代表了全国就业劳动力的大约0.08%

换句话说，大约每1 千人中就有1人被雇佣为“Computer Programmers”。

工作描述

创建、修改和测试允许计算机应用程序运行的代码和脚本。根据软件和网页开发人员或其他个人制定的规格进行工作。可能会开发并编写计算机程序来存储、定位和检索特定的文件、数据和信息。

SOC Code: 15-1251.00

评论

Leave a comment

Swayam Bhowmick (极有可能) 4 days ago
Everyone who's commenting and judging is basing their judgment on the current state of things. But, the current state is rapidly evolving, and most people are failing to account for the trajectory that the progress of AI is taking. 2 years ago, we were laughing at AI-generated videos of Will Smith eating spaghetti; today, the realism sends shivers down our spines. 2 years ago, AI generated broken code, now, it's capabale of somewhat functional code, replacing junior devs entirely.

Please take into account the trajectory of progress rather than the current state of things.
1 0 Reply
Ab (极有可能) 7 days ago
It does not require any physical interaction with the real world
1 3 Reply
Habs (不确定) 14 days ago
Software development includes understanding requirements and talking to customers (who do not know what they want). My job will be heavily automated but not yet to be fully replaced by AI.
1 2 Reply
Name (低) 1 month ago
AIs kind of suck at programming and logic they always add more bugs into my code
8 4 Reply
A 17 days ago
Currently. What about in 10 years though
5 0 Reply
John 1 month ago
Just as a few other professions, I’d say it would simply be limited to reducing unspecialized, entry-level positions. Those who find a niche would find that programming with chatbots are like lugging a junior dev that doesn’t learn around.
1 0 Reply
Everyone’s in denial 2 months ago
I am not saying I support the automation of everything, it’s just that in reality no one is safe as it accelerates. This is not just an assistant, nor just a displacement of humans, it is the complete replacement of the human mind. Pandora’s box was opened, now we have no idea if we will enter dystopia or utopia...
8 6 Reply
Jordan 17 days ago
No it is not. LLM's don't replicate how human brains work at all.
1 1 Reply
Tony B (低) 2 months ago
AI has so far been good for created standard well known solutions. It is not good at all at understanding large amounts of existing code.
7 3 Reply
Jersey Jim 1 month ago
Getting better every week. MCP. Augment Code. LLM rules.
2 1 Reply
Mu (低) 2 months ago
They will be reduced but not entirely replaced. This can be in ai research to improve the programming or new novel types of Research
1 2 Reply
Jacob (低) 2 months ago
It will change a sofware engineer is still going to be required to check the code. You aren't going to want this to automated that's crazy.
5 0 Reply
Timothy (适度) 3 months ago
"For example, tasks or task components that appeal to capacities in which AI systems excel, will have to be less (or less fully) mastered by people, so that less training will probably be required. AI systems are already much better than people at logically and arithmetically correct gathering (selecting) and processing (weighing, prioritizing, analyzing, combining) large amounts of data. They do this quickly, accurately and reliably. They are also more stable (consistent) than humans, have no stress and emotions and have a great perseverance and a much better retention of knowledge and skills than people. As a machine, they serve people completely and without any “self-interest” or “own hidden agenda.”"
0 0 Reply
Michał (极有可能) 3 months ago
Without knowing programming at this point you can easily write a good program with the help of AI. I completely agree that this work can be automated.
0 7 Reply
Jordan 17 days ago
There's a serious difference between it works and it works correctly. Without understanding the code and testing it, all you've done is make a polished turd.
0 0 Reply
TAmzid2872 (不确定) 4 months ago
Programming isnt just about writing code, its about problem solving
10 0 Reply
Sven H. (极有可能) 4 months ago
AI can already code extremely well; there will be no need for human programmers in the future.
1 6 Reply
Doubtful (低) 4 months ago
AI is horrible at following instructions, and bad at understanding architecture. Also, as context grows it tends to forget instructions.
7 1 Reply
Jersey Jim 3 months ago
Model Context Protocol helps give AI better context. AI can work across many files now (way better IDE integration has happened in the past 6 months). The limits of AI have dwindled and will continue to dwindle as time goes on. Vibe coding is now a thing and AI can follow directions to build complete mvp's in under an hour.
0 1 Reply
Jordan 17 days ago
MVPs are not working reliable software that solves a real problem.
0 0 Reply
Michael Bohn (不确定) 4 months ago
For the AI to work properly, you need people who know how to write the prompts and how to evaluate the written code.
5 2 Reply
Pavel 4 months ago
But if AI becomes as good as humans then why programmers would be ever needed if not those who work on AI itself? Maybe for some complex and big programms people would still be needed.
0 0 Reply
... 4 months ago
How does this relate to programmers? Programmers program not write prompts. Evaluation to code is already possible
0 0 Reply
J 5 months ago
Robots aint gonna code themselves, if we get to that point then that's Skynet/matrix. Aka end of the world for everyone so who cares
8 2 Reply
PossiblyUnemployed 3 months ago
My worry is if future code-generating models can modify itself or the programs it works on towards a specific goal, sort of like an intelligent self-modifying quine.
0 0 Reply
John pork (没有机会) 5 months ago
it is because AI and robots require programming and without programmers, they cannot function
1 2 Reply
PotentiallyJobless 3 months ago
It is true that programmers were necessary to create and train the models, but at this point what may be more necessary is just making sure the systems and hardware that keep the AI running don't malfunction. As it is, modern AI is finding ways to modify itself and its environment.
0 0 Reply
Emy (极有可能) 5 months ago
Even though programming can demand thinking sometimes, 70% of the work is repetitive or the same across different business. Not only that, but 80% of the time you are not solving any complex problem that demands creativity or deep thinking.
7 3 Reply
Jersey Jim 5 months ago
You can convert from one language to another with AI and a developer is not protected by knowing Java vs C#. This further erodes job protection. Recreating the wheel will drastically stop in programming and I'd imagine known problems will converge to one solution.
0 3 Reply
rick 4 months ago
programming is problem resolution. there is not a single solution. lol.
0 0 Reply
@irton (没有机会) 6 months ago
Why do they already develop this, and AI is not smart enough to do more? To complement, it is good.
1 5 Reply
Cessna (不确定) 6 months ago
Some AI can program or help a person program like chatgpt
3 2 Reply

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