Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

Low Risk
20%

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Vote Comments (13)
AUTOMATION RISK
CALCULATED
20%
(Minimal Risk)
POLLING
20%
(Low Risk, Based on 237 votes)
Average: 20%
LABOR DEMAND
GROWTH
9.1%
by year 2033
WAGES
$57,300
or $27.55 per hour
Volume
397,450
as of 2023
SUMMARY
What does this snowflake show?
The Snowflake is a visual summary of the five badges: Automation Risk (calculated), Risk (polled), Growth, Wages and Volume. It gives you an instant snapshot of an occupations profile. The colour of the Snowflake relates to its size. The better the occupation scores in relation to others, the larger and greener the Snowflake becomes.
JOB SCORE
7.6/10
What's this?
Job Score (higher is better):

We rate jobs using four factors. These are:

- Chance of being automated
- Job growth
- Wages
- Volume of available positions

These are some key things to think about when job hunting.

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Calculated automation risk

20% (Minimal Risk)

Minimal Risk (0-20%): Occupations in this category have a low probability of being automated, as they typically demand complex problem-solving, creativity, strong interpersonal skills, and a high degree of manual dexterity. These jobs often involve intricate hand movements and precise coordination, making it difficult for machines to replicate the required tasks.

More information on what this score is, and how it is calculated is available here.

Some quite important qualities of the job are difficult to automate:

  • Cramped Work Space, Awkward Positions

  • Finger Dexterity

  • Manual Dexterity

  • Social Perceptiveness

User poll

20% chance of full automation within the next two decades

Our visitors have voted there's a low chance this occupation will be automated. This assessment is further supported by the calculated automation risk level, which estimates 20% chance of automation.

What do you think the risk of automation is?

What is the likelihood that Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers will be replaced by robots or artificial intelligence within the next 20 years?

Sentiment

The following graph is shown where there are enough votes to produce meaningful data. It displays user poll results over time, providing a clear indication of sentiment trends.

Sentiment over time (yearly)

Growth

Very fast growth relative to other professions

The number of 'Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers' job openings is expected to rise 9.1% by 2033

Total employment, and estimated job openings

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the period between 2023 and 2033
Updated projections are due 09-2025.

Wages

Moderately paid relative to other professions

In 2023, the median annual wage for 'Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers' was 57.300 $, or 28 $ per hour

'Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers' were paid 19.2% higher than the national median wage, which stood at 48.060 $

Wages over time

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Volume

Significantly greater range of job opportunities compared to other professions

As of 2023 there were 397,450 people employed as 'Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers' within the United States.

This represents around 0.26% of the employed workforce across the country

Put another way, around 1 in 382 people are employed as 'Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers'.

Job description

Install or repair heating, central air conditioning, HVAC, or refrigeration systems, including oil burners, hot-air furnaces, and heating stoves.

SOC Code: 49-9021.00

Comments (13)

Leave a comment
Glenn Prosser (No chance)
25 Aug 2024 23:28
The job requires a high level of knowledge that is physically converted in to intricate, and exacting hand/finger movements.
The locations these jobs are performed range from atop of high-rise buildings through to confined spaces.
Complex problem solving is required, and sometimes the answer may require solutions that contravene logic.
Then, once the job is completed, inter-personal skills are highly important in convincing customers of the correct solution.
mix (No chance)
14 Sep 2022 02:14
I dont see how this could possibly be automated in 20 years. The spaces you have to crawl in and the skills needed would take much longer to automate.
Lynne
12 Jan 2024 02:56
Thats why the chance is so low
Gary B (No chance)
28 Apr 2022 16:53
This is hilarious. Once again, you can tell no one has a clue what goes into HVAC. Can't wait to meet the robot who drives to a site, puts up a ladder, climbs it, pulls up a compressor, recovery machine, vacuum pump, gauges, or just has it all built-in. Goes up to the unit or multiple units and figures out one or more issues, drives to the supplier, buys parts, drives back, fixes the unit, say a condenser coil on a 20-ton. Then, once they are done, they are sent to a site where we are retrofitting controls onto 30 rooftops using GFX and Distech controls. Going to need some serious dexterity to climb above a drop ceiling onto a wall to pull 50 wires half a mile, then do the wiring of the controllers, then program the controllers, and then test all of it. Then add the Jace and connect to the building intranet and also make exceptions for outside access, all while working with "IT", which essentially doesn't exist for many companies, so it better be able to do it all. There's so much more; it's not even funny.

No way, not in 50 years.
john doe (No chance)
22 Feb 2022 01:28
Unless you can get a robot to crawl in an attic and manage to take the HVAC equipment out without damaging the house, then sure.
Robert
01 Aug 2021 09:37
You're telling me that there will be a robot that can do all the physical labor, technical installation, and repairs of HVAC systems? Lol, please. If that were the case, no job will exist.
Nate (No chance)
23 Jun 2021 19:24
I believe robots/software will make it easier to work on HVAC equipment making it so any random joe can work on it but a robot doing such in depth work as wiring repairs and burner replacement especially in the next 2 decades seems unlikely
Refrigeration technician
16 Feb 2020 02:00
So HVAC/R techs have a 65% chance but electricians have a 15% chance? This website is ridiculous. Pretty much any trade skill in the service industry will be protected for a long time. Even as the systems become more automated there will have to be human technicians to maintain those systems. Over time it may definitely become more consolidated, but the future is a very tricky thing to predict.
Jebac disa (Low)
31 Jan 2020 15:56
Hard job with unique jd
Fef (Low)
30 Oct 2019 11:15
I think it would need a very advanced robot to carry all the manual labour needed to install or repair an air conditioner. A robot able to walk, lift, drill, use tools.
Skagit Haines (Low)
27 Aug 2019 18:29
I dont think there will be robots capable of troubleshooting everything in HVAC Systems. it requires manual dexterity
Ben
30 Jul 2019 12:31
No way too many variables
Ben
24 Dec 2020 02:40
There’s also the emotional aspect when it comes to sales/service within the residential part of the field. People will be more tempted to destroy a robot than commit murder when you have to tell the customer it’s going to be x amount of money to repair/ replace x part and they loose their shit 😂
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