Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists

risk level
Based on 103 votes
by year 2032
or $26.13 per hour
as of 2022

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Automation risk

52% (Moderate Risk)

Moderate Risk (41-60%): Occupations with a moderate risk of automation usually involve routine tasks but still require some human judgment and interaction.

More information on what this score is, and how it is calculated is available here.

Some very important qualities of the job are difficult to automate:

  • Cramped Work Space, Awkward Positions

Some quite important qualities of the job are difficult to automate:

  • Finger Dexterity

  • Manual Dexterity

User poll

33% chance of full automation within the next two decades

Our visitors have voted there's a low chance this occupation will be automated. However, the automation risk level we have generated suggests a higher chance of automation: 52% chance of automation.

What do you think the risk of automation is?

What is the likelihood that Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists will be replaced by robots or artificial intelligence within the next 20 years?


The following graph(s) are included wherever there is a substantial amount of votes to render meaningful data. These visual representations display user poll results over time, providing a significant indication of sentiment trends.

Sentiment over time (yearly)


Moderate growth relative to other professions

The number of 'Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists' job openings is expected to rise 4.3% by 2032

Total employment, and estimated job openings

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the period between 2021 and 2031
Updated projections are due 09-2023.


Moderately paid relative to other professions

In 2022, the median annual wage for 'Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists' was $54,360, or $26 per hour

'Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists' were paid 17.4% higher than the national median wage, which stood at $46,310

Wages over time

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics


Greater range of job opportunities compared to other professions

As of 2022 there were 271,720 people employed as 'Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists' within the United States.

This represents around 0.18% of the employed workforce across the country

Put another way, around 1 in 544 people are employed as 'Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists'.

Job description

Diagnose, adjust, repair, or overhaul buses and trucks, or maintain and repair any type of diesel engines. Includes mechanics working primarily with automobile or marine diesel engines.

SOC Code: 49-3031.00


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Leeroy (Low) says
Diagnosis is already widely aided by computers and AI, but to replace the physical technician would be more money than its worth right now. Androids aren't quite there yet.
Oct 26, 2023 at 04:50 PM
Charlie J Sierra (Low) says
Unless the entire configuration of trucks and buses is redesigned, a robot cannot handle the complexity of tasks involved in heavy vehicle maintenance.

Sure, if the drivetrain is replaced with batteries and electric motors, a large part of a mechanic's routine work will be eliminated. This would result in a decrease in the number of mechanics needed in a workshop. However, even then, the chance of automation replacing all mechanical repair work is 30% or less.

No robot exists that could undertake even the relatively simple task of replacing a headlight bulb, let alone diagnosing a problem such as "vibration at 55 km/h".
Sep 11, 2022 at 07:58 AM
Brett Coker (Low) says
A Diesel Technician is a job that requires very specific movements and positions that a machine will likely not be able to reach.

Also, in the case of a catastrophic mechanical failure, certain steps must be taken depending on the kind of failure. This too, is very difficult for machines to accomplish.
Aug 24, 2022 at 05:57 PM
Fraser Proudfoot (Highly likely) says
Everything is going electric. I've seen it first hand.
May 22, 2022 at 11:22 PM
Jason (No chance) says
There's absolutely no way a robot will be able to think out of the box as effectively as humans can to solve a problem
Nov 04, 2021 at 11:07 PM
Dee Snuts (No chance) says
Machines don't have advanced enough AI to diagnose and solve problems
Mar 27, 2020 at 07:42 PM
EC says
Unless machines make machines that they are able to repair and maintain yea they'll take over but before that its gonna be a very long time because humans always fight off opps, humans are kind of like the honey badgers of the universe except we destroy our own habitats
Dec 25, 2020 at 04:12 AM

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