Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics

AUTOMATION RISK
CALCULATED
55%
risk level
POLLING
33%
Based on 456 votes
LABOR DEMAND
GROWTH
1.4%
by year 2032
WAGES
$47,770
or $22.96 per hour
Volume
676,570
as of 2023
SUMMARY
JOB SCORE
4.7/10

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Automation risk

55% (Moderate Risk)

Moderate Risk (41-60%): Occupations with a moderate risk of automation usually involve routine tasks but still require some human judgment and interaction.

More information on what this score is, and how it is calculated is available here.

Some very important qualities of the job are difficult to automate:

  • Cramped Work Space, Awkward Positions

Some quite important qualities of the job are difficult to automate:

  • Manual Dexterity

  • Finger Dexterity

  • Social Perceptiveness

User poll

33% chance of full automation within the next two decades

Our visitors have voted there's a low chance this occupation will be automated. However, the automation risk level we have generated suggests a higher chance of automation: 55% chance of automation.

What do you think the risk of automation is?

What is the likelihood that Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics will be replaced by robots or artificial intelligence within the next 20 years?






Sentiment

The following graph(s) are included wherever there is a substantial amount of votes to render meaningful data. These visual representations display user poll results over time, providing a significant indication of sentiment trends.

Sentiment over time (yearly)

Growth

Slow growth relative to other professions.

The number of 'Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics' job openings is expected to rise 1.4% by 2032

Total employment, and estimated job openings

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the period between 2021 and 2031
Updated projections are due 09-2023.

Wages

Low paid relative to other professions

In 2023, the median annual wage for 'Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics' was $47,770, or $22 per hour

'Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics' were paid 0.6% lower than the national median wage, which stood at $48,060

Wages over time

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Volume

Significantly greater range of job opportunities compared to other professions

As of 2023 there were 676,570 people employed as 'Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics' within the United States.

This represents around 0.45% of the employed workforce across the country

Put another way, around 1 in 224 people are employed as 'Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics'.

Job description

Diagnose, adjust, repair, or overhaul automotive vehicles.

SOC Code: 49-3023.00

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Comments

Leave a comment

Timmy Martin (No chance) says
The pathway to automating the role of a technician I see would first require modular vehicle construction. Once vehicles have easily replaced and accessible modules i.e. a "front right drive motor assembly". an automated system could isolate the concern to a general module and with the removal of a handful of accessible fasteners could remove the whole module and replace it. With one large fastener at the top of the strut tower two large fasteners on the lower control arm and one large electrical connector, the entire module is swapped and sent for rebuild.
Oct 27, 2023 at 02:50 PM
Tom B says
Somewhere, right now a car company engineering group is working on a vehicle design that is centered around supporting service by robotics, and also developing the compatible robots. In about 5 years you will see basic service robots deployed, and within 10 years at least 50% of the work can be delegated to robots. (for new car dealerships) AI and big data will handle the majority of failure diagnosis, with diagnostics over the air and onboard computer software updates over the air. If surgeons are already being displaced by robotics for some types of surgeries, when the cost of robotics comes down almost any skilled manual labor can be displaced.
Oct 08, 2023 at 03:01 AM
Mestica says
There are simply too many variables, people interactions, and different levels of abuse and care that each vehicle receives.
May 22, 2023 at 10:29 PM
Scott (No chance) says
I've been an auto technician for about 37 years now. When I started working on cars computers didn't exist in cars yet. Now some cars have upwards of 15 computers that do everything from working a convertible top to driving a vehicle autonomously. That's a big leap in 37 years but I just don't think that robots could replace the parts we replace or diagnose a problem that humans can. I just don't think its possible. Not now. Not in 50 years. Yes cars will become smarter and have more computers but I still think there will always be a need for a human mechanic to work on them.

Also in my opinion cars haven't gotten any better than they were in the 70s or 80s just different problems and different ways to diagnose and repair them. I've forgotten more than a lot of guys in their 30s and even 40s have learned. I think I was blessed to have become a Mechanic when I did. I've seen and learned a lot more in 37 years than I think most techs will learn in the next 35 or 40 years. I became a mechanic in a time when computers didn't exist in cars I remember how may shops went out of business when Antilock brakes came out.

I'm a multiple times A.S.E. Master Technician. Still learning today still wrenching and I will to the end. I actually enjoyed it more 25 or 30 years ago but I love some of the challenges techs face today. I'm always waiting for that problem no one can figure out and I figure it out.

All the Techs my age know exactly what I'm saying we've all been there and been that guy to fix it. I doubt any robot could do all the things we have to do. It just doesn't seem possible.
May 04, 2023 at 02:45 AM
Alec (Low) says
As cars get more advanced it will be harder to work on them and at the rate technology is progressing it seems unlikely that 20 years from now computers will be doing all the work on cars, humans are a lot more likely to be needed but will have technological aid
Apr 14, 2023 at 02:48 PM
Siprico (Highly likely) says
Corporations will always look for the most cost effective way to increase the bottom line, corporations are not concerned with humanity or culture unless it makes them money.
Mar 28, 2023 at 05:52 PM
Gael Gay Gaylord (Low) says
Robots working on cars would be bad, they do already create cars but I think its better if we people fix the cars and not have them create and fix them too (I'm gonna be an automotive mechanic sooner or later)
Dec 16, 2022 at 03:34 PM
John says
For maintenance, sure, but not every car is exactly the same. This would be one of the last to go. Anyone with a computer job or repetitive task will go first. Look at nursing, they said like 1.5%, and this is 55%... what? You check the temperature of a patient, then play on Facebook and complain about work for 3 hours. Lol. Definitely going to replace most of the basic ones.
Feb 14, 2022 at 04:51 AM
Nicholas D'Amico (Low) says
Assembly and manufacturing will be automated. Minor service jobs, like fluid changes, will undoubtedly be automated away.

However, troubleshooting and repairing vehicles with problems that aren't related to recurring service will not be automated away.

With this in mind, I think that the market for mechanics will actually increase due to the automation of vehicles on the road. More vehicles mean more mechanics - more jiffy lube robot techs and more certified mechanics in the future.
Jan 06, 2022 at 07:21 PM
Alex says
Not robots but 'electric cars will reduce maintenance by 90 per cent' - Sandy Munro
Aug 30, 2021 at 12:03 AM
Dean (No chance) says
There simply is to many variables/people interactions that have to happen/every vehicle is different in the amount of abuse and care towards that vehicle
May 27, 2021 at 03:19 AM
Troy (No chance) says
They won't be able to diagnose little problems.
May 14, 2021 at 12:09 PM
Jarno says
Totally agree with the comments here. You’d need a super AI just to recognize the wear and/or damage. Then it also needs to think of a way to actually do it... and then you’d need a super-robot to be actually able to do the very diverse physical stuff. (Arms? Tools?)

It wouldn’t be cost effective to design and build such a robot anytime soon.

This job is super under-appreciated in my opinion.
Jan 09, 2021 at 11:08 AM
Siprico says
What is "super" AI? Seeing as every point I've read so far only takes into account the current(2023) state of the industry with out implementing the advances in the industry that would naturally happen with the passing of time. Once You apply this logical progression of the industry you must also take into account that advancements in the computer/robotics world are much more impactful and happen at an increasingly increased rate. "Robots will never be able to build a car." This used to be the motto; but as we all know that industry was quickly taken over by automation, and tech has only gotten exponentially more advanced since that time.
Mar 28, 2023 at 06:02 PM
Rick (Low) says
Besides diagnostics there are to many variables for a robot to make the actual repairs.
May 15, 2020 at 01:41 PM
Sorry robots will take your jobs says
They do have arms fingers and A.I. would allow them to access info from any related and applicable book, manual, or source...
Aug 14, 2021 at 02:02 PM
Maybe 50 years. (No chance) says
Unless we get self thinking robots that can mimic and access repair books and find problems very unlikely.

They would need arms for one.
May 05, 2020 at 11:05 AM
jim beam (Low) says
Its WAYYYYYYY more complicated then you think
Nov 12, 2019 at 01:17 PM
john (No chance) says
robots can not detect the slightest repair
Aug 28, 2019 at 12:05 AM
aaa says
Eventually yes, but just don't see it happening in the next 20 years.
Mar 30, 2019 at 11:05 PM
jason says
right there with u brother
F**k robots
Oct 01, 2019 at 03:40 PM

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