risk level
Based on 778 votes
by year 2032
or $57.69 per hour
as of 2023

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Automation risk

52% (Moderate Risk)

Moderate Risk (41-60%): Occupations with a moderate risk of automation usually involve routine tasks but still require some human judgment and interaction.

More information on what this score is, and how it is calculated is available here.

Some quite important qualities of the job are difficult to automate:

  • Originality

  • Negotiation

  • Persuasion

User poll

41% chance of full automation within the next two decades

Our visitors have voted they are unsure if this occupation will be automated. This assessment is further supported by the calculated automation risk level, which estimates 52% chance of automation.

What do you think the risk of automation is?

What is the likelihood that Actuaries will be replaced by robots or artificial intelligence within the next 20 years?


The following graph(s) are included wherever there is a substantial amount of votes to render meaningful data. These visual representations display user poll results over time, providing a significant indication of sentiment trends.

Sentiment over time (yearly)


Very fast growth relative to other professions

The number of 'Actuaries' job openings is expected to rise 20.8% by 2032

Total employment, and estimated job openings

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the period between 2021 and 2031
Updated projections are due 09-2023.


Very high paid relative to other professions

In 2023, the median annual wage for 'Actuaries' was $120,000, or $57 per hour

'Actuaries' were paid 149.7% higher than the national median wage, which stood at $48,060

Wages over time

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics


Lower range of job opportunities compared to other professions

As of 2023 there were 25,470 people employed as 'Actuaries' within the United States.

This represents around < 0.001% of the employed workforce across the country

Put another way, around 1 in 5 thousand people are employed as 'Actuaries'.

Job description

Analyze statistical data, such as mortality, accident, sickness, disability, and retirement rates and construct probability tables to forecast risk and liability for payment of future benefits. May ascertain insurance rates required and cash reserves necessary to ensure payment of future benefits.

SOC Code: 15-2011.00


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Leave a comment

Alex (No chance) says
When it comes to economics, AI has an upper hand in understanding statistics and mathematics, with that said: The general economy suffers from a 100% secure stance in economy. For that reason it's extremely unlikely that AI takes the place of an actuary.
May 23, 2024 at 11:02 PM
Frank Chang (Low) says
Too much of actuarial work requires judgment, including commercial pricing and reserving.
If AI will be able to determine the outcome of lawsuits, actuaries might be at greater risk
May 19, 2024 at 05:06 AM
Vittorio (Low) says
It is based on expert judgement and a holistic comprehension of technical, but also massive qualitative and strategic choices
Jun 09, 2023 at 09:40 AM
;P (Highly likely) says
I don’t think AI is going to replace this job completely but def gonna lower the average salary. Some of the actuarial jobs are getting paid absurd amount of money for rather simple work lol
Apr 06, 2023 at 03:27 PM
JohnQ (No chance) says
GPT 4 has failed all of the actuarial exams by a large margin.
Mar 31, 2023 at 08:53 PM
Harsha Rajendran (Highly likely) says
Because it mostly involves mathematical calculations and actuarial techniques, these can only be done using computers due to the vast data. Once programmed to reckon the necessary sequence of steps required, from small to complex, inclusive of advising the stakeholders with reasonable output, decisions can be easily automated.
Jan 27, 2023 at 12:40 PM
Anon (Highly likely) says
A job that’s both repetitive and centered around statistics and numbers. Easily replaceable by robots. No need to hire a human and pay such a large salary. Cuts costs massively
Sep 28, 2021 at 10:33 PM
human (No chance) says
The automation of analysis and modeling is a great and useful tool for actuaries. There will always be a need for humans to study actuarial science because we will never achieve a final, perfect model (and if we did, we could let the robots take over!). To achieve a perfect model, all relevant pieces of information regarding how every individual human being will make every future decision must be known. This is obviously impossible, so sorry robots.

Because more data is being generated and analysis tools are improving constantly, the practice of improving actuarial models will be profitable for employers of actuaries. As long as actuaries continue to study and update actuarial assumptions and modeling techniques they will have a very important and well-compensated role in the workforce.
Oct 28, 2020 at 06:00 AM
Nearly obsolete human says
You claim that robots will not be able to replace humans because "all relevant pieces of information regarding how every individual human being will make every future decision must be known" in order for this to happen. This does not make a lot of sense to me. Human actuaries do not have access to this information, so why would a robotic actuary need to have access to this information in order to replace humans? An AI model would not have to be perfect in order to be better than humans. For example, I suspect that chess programs do not play perfectly, but they play better than humans.

Regarding your second paragraph, I see no reason why a sufficiently advanced AI couldn't update actuarial assumptions based on new data, and it seems possible that an advanced AGI might be able to actually develop better models than humans.
Jun 02, 2023 at 09:06 PM
Bernard Everstein (Highly likely) says
Its literally a job focussed around data analysis... that's what computers are for
Oct 20, 2020 at 08:53 PM
momo says
lol I know right. People are so delusional when it comes to automation. Reminds me of the truckers saying "ai will never make the tough decisions from moment to moment"

There is no job ai cannot replace. Imagine an AI that models the human brain inside a perfect humanoid body. Why couldn't it do job x? Or are you convinced such a simulacrum could never be achieved?
Sep 16, 2021 at 05:05 PM
Kakkask says
You know nothing about actuarial science. They have to analyze data and predict the financial risk for the future. Ever heard of dy/dx. That's what actuary does a lot in a daily basis.
Sep 29, 2022 at 12:29 PM
sarina tang says
Its analysing statistical data which AI's can already do
May 02, 2020 at 12:31 PM
Mario says
There's a lot of common sense behind it that you need someone there for
Nov 23, 2020 at 05:06 AM
Rob the Robot says
101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010010101010101beep beep, I would not be so sure beep boop. I am coming for your job. beep beep
Dec 20, 2019 at 01:59 AM

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