商业飞行员

中等风险
46%

您接下来想去哪里?

与朋友和家人分享您的结果。

或者,更深入地探索这个职业...

自动化风险
计算出的
55%
(中等风险)
投票
37%
(低风险, 根据 2,482 票的投票结果)
Average: 46%
劳动力需求
增长
5.7%
到2033年
工资
$113,080
或每小时 $54.36
体积
52,750
截至 2023
摘要
这个雪花图案展示了什么?
雪花是五个徽章的视觉总结:自动化风险(计算得出)、风险(投票得出)、增长、工资和体积。它为你提供了一个职业概况的即时快照。雪花的颜色与其大小有关。与其他职业相比,某个职业的得分越好,雪花就会变得越大且越绿。
工作评分
6.5/10
这是什么?
工作评分(越高越好):

我们使用四个因素对工作进行评分。这些是:

- 被自动化的可能性
- 工作增长
- 工资
- 可用职位的数量

这些是求职时需要考虑的一些关键事项。

人们还浏览了

计算机程序员 律师 演员 网页开发者 平面设计师

计算自动化风险

55% (中等风险)

中等风险(41-60%):中等风险的职业通常涉及常规任务,但仍需要一些人类的判断和交互。

有关这个分数是什么以及如何计算的更多信息可在这里找到。

工作中的一些相当重要的品质难以自动化:

  • 狭窄的工作空间,尴尬的姿势

  • 手工熟练度

  • 手指灵巧

  • 帮助和照顾他人

  • 社会洞察力

用户投票

在接下来的二十年内,实现全自动化的可能性为37%

我们的访客投票表示,这个职业被自动化的可能性很低。 然而,我们生成的自动化风险等级暗示了更高的自动化可能性:55%的自动化机会。

你认为自动化的风险是什么?

商业飞行员在未来20年内被机器人或人工智能取代的可能性有多大?

情感

以下图表显示了在有足够投票的情况下生成的有意义数据。它展示了用户投票结果随时间的变化,清晰地指示了情感趋势。

随着时间的推移的情绪(季度)

随着时间(每年)的情绪变化

增长

相对于其他职业的快速增长

预计"Commercial Pilots"的工作空缺数量将在2033内增长5.7%

总就业人数和预计的职位空缺

* 根据劳工统计局的数据,该数据涵盖了从2023到2033的期间。
更新的预测将在09-2025到期.

工资

相对于其他职业,薪酬非常高

在2023,'Commercial Pilots'的年度中位数工资为$113,080,或每小时$54。

'Commercial Pilots'的薪资比全国中位工资高135.3%,全国中位工资为$48,060。

随着时间推移的工资

* 来自美国劳工统计局的数据

体积

与其他职业相比,工作机会的适中范围。

截至2023,在美国有52,750人被雇佣为'Commercial Pilots'。

这代表了全国就业劳动力的大约< 0.001%

换句话说,大约每2 千人中就有1人被雇佣为“Commercial Pilots”。

工作描述

驾驶并导航固定翼飞机在非定期航空运输线路上的飞行,或直升机。需要商业飞行员证书。包括具有相似认证的包机飞行员,以及空中救护和空中旅游飞行员。不包括地区,国家和国际航空公司的飞行员。

SOC Code: 53-2012.00

评论 (107)

发表评论
Luke (没有机会)
15 10月 2024 19:33
Pilots can do things robots can't. Somtimes you can't follow the rules and need to break them. Think about the gimli glider. The pilot had no landing gear, he was way too high and way too fast. He did a side slip menuveur, only able to be completed in glider aircraft. It was a risky move but it would have to be done if they wanted to land. They succeded by breaking the rules and testing the limits. That is somthing that can nevery be done by a robot.
Dominic Fernandez (没有机会)
18 12月 2025 18:14
The tech is just not there yet, federal laws definitely would not condone it, and public support behind such a rushed technology would probably be non-existent.
LudditeCSci
05 2月 2026 03:31
We're not talking about "yet". We're talking about "in 20 years". And the answer, as a computer scientist who used to work with AI, is "I'd bet my home on it". The question isn't really about the tech; it's whether the public, government, unions etc. will accept or reject the practice and whether any permutation of their opinions actually matter in aggregate.

Personally, I think people will accept it surprisingly quickly after some initial hesitancy, just like there was with AI-generated content and general purpose LLM chatbots at the beginning. (There still is resistance - and I'm part of it - but ChatGPT etc. has already taken a huge chunk out of Google's market share, and I know so many people of all ages who treat its answers as gospel.) By the time Gen Alpha has come of age, long before 2046, unmanned cars and planes will be a standard part of their life, like so many "robot" jobs.
LudditeCSci
05 2月 2026 03:46
Edit to add: Airlines only have to start carrying cargo unmanned for 5-10 years before saying, "look, we've flown x hundred thousand trips without a single crash", compare it to the >0 rate that'll inevitably occur on manned flights, and many people will accept that. Certainly enough to create a snowball effect. People, generally, are very poor at judging timelines: if you told the people of early 2020 that we could do what we can now with AI by this point, they would have broadly said "no way". When I'm looking at job scores on this site, I'm usually looking at the generated estimate. A lot of people here are in denial and trying to defend their own current or desired future professions. (As a computer scientist, my field has been absolutely rocked by AI. Even I had doubts that it could do as much damage as rapidly as it has. But I hold everyone's fields to the same realistic and pessimistic standards -- in the case of technological unemployment, pessimism IS realism.)
Mani salah (低)
13 11月 2024 03:49
The artificial intllegence can't replace the human's emotion and it's way of thinking in some situations and must be supervised by a trained and experienced pilot
grummangrouse45 (不确定)
08 5月 2024 12:13
The technology required to do it is almost here, the only significant hurdle is the trust of passengers. Once the general population trusts AI/robots enough to put their lives in it's hands, pilots won't be as needed. However, that day may never come, and there are still things which technology can't do yet (respond to emergencies, handle passengers, aircraft repairs, etc.).
Rip (低)
18 12月 2023 12:05
No flight is the same. No robot could do what sully did.
Eryk Kowalczyk
27 1月 2026 05:15
Autopilot is already a large part of flight, and as AI gets better, there could be a chance. Even though AI is not perfect, and some people don't trust it, remember that many incidents, if not a majority, such as Air France 447, resulted in human error. Pilot error accounts for about 60 to 80% of plane crashes.
Matheus (低)
10 8月 2024 02:44
The competent regulatory body, (FAA) is VERY conservative. So even if we had the technology, I doubt that they would allow autonomous commercial planes.
In this case, regulation is the hold-up, not the technology.
Dee Snuts (没有机会)
22 4月 2024 21:22
If the automated system went down because of a storm or someone forgetting to turn their phone on airplane mode then every passenger is screwed
Anonymous (低)
24 1月 2024 08:14
People would not trust robots, which are feared, to fly them, especially when flying is also feared by most people. They would much rather trust humans who can reassure them and are experienced. Also, companies would also be hesitant to incorporate robots as many of them do not have the money required and any lawsuits following a crash would be devastating and would end the whole industry potentially.
LudditeCSci (极有可能)
05 2月 2026 03:06
The idea that the "public won't accept it" or "government won't go for it" is naive over a 20 year timescale. The question isn't "Will it happen imminently?"; there's a large emphasis on the two decades. Between "15 minute cities", limited travel, Net Zero, and carbon taxes (i.e. UN policies based on SDGs), it's unclear if there will be a travel industry in 20 years, let alone a need for large numbers of commercial pilots.

Rightly or wrongly, with the number of DEI initiatives at present and several recent high-profile transport incidents caused by user error, I foresee many people choosing AI over humans in life-or-death professions. I make no judgement on that, personally, but I know a lot of people are bearish on such hiring policies, especially in critical industries. As for the technology, one only need look at the progress of AI in automated driving since 2020 to see that self-flying planes will almost surely exist by 2045. (I'm a computer scientist, by the way. My own job will be gone too -- and much sooner. I'm opposed to AI on principle and I've grown to hate my own field. But I've also got to be honest about it because I understand where we are.)
Sai rithwik (低)
10 8月 2023 18:06
I don't believe robots can take on the role of commercial pilots due to the potential risks involved.

Allowing robots to operate planes that carry varying numbers of passengers, such as smaller regional jets accommodating around 50 to 100 passengers, and larger airliners like the Boeing 737 or Airbus A320 series carrying between 140 to 240 passengers, or wide-body aircraft like the Boeing 777 or Airbus A380 with capacities ranging from around 300 to over 800 passengers, could pose significant risks to people's lives.

The possibility of robot malfunctions raises concerns about placing full trust in their abilities.
Eli (低)
16 5月 2023 02:51
Most passengers feel like they need at least 1 human pilot to be safe. you can program a robot to do something but it has no clue what to do if something goes wrong.
Oli (低)
08 11月 2025 20:37
People will not trust to get on a plane from the current generations unless there is a qualified pilot onboard. Many people already have fear of flying and this would just make it worse for them since there is no real human being in the cockpit and it is controlled remotely. Additionally, it is just generally safer for a real human pilot as they are able to use their experience and training across emergency situations. For example, AI is very procedural and programmed to do exactly what manuals and procedures say, but what if there is a catastrophic emergency that requires quick-thinking? Many emergencies are procedural however there are exceptions when a pilots own experience is necessary for the safety of others. Plus, a real pilot is going to have empathy and adrenaline in a emergency situation as they also want to save themselves.. A remote controlled plane or AI powered plane won't have this and it will be a completely different situation. Maybe 20-30 years there could be single-pilot operations but no full automation.
CFIguy (没有机会)
01 6月 2025 01:14
We already have the technology to automate aviation, but I see no chance of it happening in the next few decades. The FAA moves slowly, airlines are controlled by pilot unions, and the AI would much much more real world training to understand emergency situations before it would be trusted with autonomously flying an aircraft. Maybe by 2060 we might see some planes go automated, but until then it is still a very rewarding and fun career to pursue.
Luca (低)
05 3月 2025 21:39
requires human interference in accidents and emergencies
have to be 1000% reliable in order to not cause problems
can scare public away
Felipe (低)
04 3月 2025 01:43
Simple. The pilot is the hierarchy within the system. Today, AI can indeed perform even complex tasks, but you can never trust an AI 100% to pilot an airplane. The critical factor is simple: if there is any change or problem with the aircraft, a pilot can act quickly by not strictly following airline protocols. Following protocols 100% does not always guarantee safety.

Examples like TACA Flight 110, where a Boeing 737-300 lost both engines, show this. Instead of following the manual and returning, the pilots landed on the grass ahead, which was the right decision. This applies to many situations. In the case of United Airlines Flight 232, it's another example. Following the correct protocols isn't always the right choice and can sometimes prevent worse tragedies.

In the United case, let's suppose an AI is in command and the plane loses all three hydraulic systems. The company's manual doesn't cover a situation where all engines are lost. At that moment, what would the AI do? Even if it follows the tower controller's voice commands correctly, it’s impossible to determine the flight's fate because there's no human inside. However, this isn't to say that following protocols is always wrong. It’s just a reminder to follow protocols, but if you ever need to break them, it should be in a life-or-death situation.
Bao Nam (没有机会)
02 7月 2024 08:57
Because flying airplanes is very hard to do, if done not correctly, the plane could crash, the A.I is smart but some times the A.I will have errors that cannot be fixed. I think just that.
Sina (没有机会)
26 5月 2024 18:12
A human being is required to accept legal responsibility
LeftE81 (没有机会)
04 12月 2023 03:59
They can't handle emergencies
Sumik Chhaliwal (低)
03 11月 2023 15:50
I don't think robots will fully take over the "Commercial Pilot" job 'cause you always need human intelligence instead of artificial intelligence for a safe journey.

关于这个职业请留下您的评论
0/8000