Programiści komputerowi

Wysokie ryzyko
70%
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RYZYKO AUTOMATYZACJI
OBLICZONY
70%
(Wysokie ryzyko)
ANKIETOWANIE
70%
(Wysokie ryzyko)
Average: 70%
POPYT NA PRACĘ
WZROST
-9,6%
do roku 2033
PŁACE
99 700 $
lub 47,93 $ za godzinę
Objętość
120 370
od 2023
STRESZCZENIE
WYNIK PRACY
3,5/10

Ludzie również oglądali

Obliczone ryzyko automatyzacji

70% (Wysokie ryzyko)

Wysokie ryzyko (61-80%): Zawody w tej kategorii stoją przed znaczącym zagrożeniem ze strony automatyzacji, ponieważ wiele z ich zadań może być łatwo zautomatyzowanych przy użyciu obecnych lub bliskich przyszłości technologii.

Więcej informacji na temat tego, czym jest ten wynik i jak jest obliczany, jest dostępne tutaj.

Niektóre dość ważne cechy pracy są trudne do zautomatyzowania:

  • Spostrzegawczość Społeczna

  • Oryginalność

Ankieta użytkownika

70% szansa na pełną automatyzację w ciągu najbliższych dwóch dekad

Nasi goście głosowali, że jest prawdopodobne, iż to zawód zostanie zautomatyzowany. To ocena jest dodatkowo wspierana przez obliczony poziom ryzyka automatyzacji, który szacuje 70% szansę na automatyzację.

Jakie są Twoje zdanie na temat ryzyka automatyzacji?

Jakie jest prawdopodobieństwo, że Programiści komputerowi zostanie zastąpione przez roboty lub sztuczną inteligencję w ciągu najbliższych 20 lat?






Nastroje

Poniższy wykres jest zamieszczany wszędzie tam, gdzie istnieje znaczna liczba głosów, aby przedstawić istotne dane. Te wizualne reprezentacje pokazują wyniki ankiet użytkowników w czasie, dostarczając istotnych wskazówek dotyczących trendów nastrojów.

Nastroje w czasie (kwartalnie)

Nastroje w czasie (rocznie)

Wzrost

Bardzo wolny wzrost w porównaniu do innych profesji.

Liczba ofert pracy na stanowisko 'Computer Programmers' ma spadać 9,6% do 2033

Całkowite zatrudnienie oraz szacowane oferty pracy

* Dane z Biura Statystyki Pracy za okres pomiędzy 2023 a 2033
Zaktualizowane prognozy mają być dostępne 09-2025.

Płace

Bardzo wysoko opłacany w porównaniu do innych profesji

W 2023, mediana rocznej pensji dla 'Computer Programmers' wynosiła 99 700 $, czyli 47 $ za godzinę.

'Computer Programmers' otrzymali wynagrodzenie wyższe o 107,4% od średniej krajowej, która wynosiła 48 060 $

Płace z biegiem czasu

* Dane z Biura Statystyki Pracy

Objętość

Większy zakres możliwości pracy w porównaniu do innych zawodów

Od 2023 roku zatrudnionych było 120 370 osób na stanowisku 'Computer Programmers' w Stanach Zjednoczonych.

To oznacza około 0,08% zatrudnionej siły roboczej w całym kraju.

Inaczej mówiąc, około 1 na 1 tysiąc osób jest zatrudnionych jako 'Computer Programmers'.

Opis stanowiska pracy

Twórz, modyfikuj i testuj kod oraz skrypty, które pozwalają na uruchamianie aplikacji komputerowych. Pracuj na podstawie specyfikacji opracowanych przez programistów oprogramowania i deweloperów stron internetowych lub innych osób. Możesz również tworzyć i pisać programy komputerowe do przechowywania, lokalizowania i odzyskiwania konkretnych dokumentów, danych i informacji.

SOC Code: 15-1251.00

Komentarze

Leave a comment

Shadencus (Niski) 15 days ago
Because programming good maintainable code requires understanding the greater project structure and deciding whats important and whats isn't. Also many programming problems require unique solutions, that may be similiar to each other but fundmentally different.
So its pretty hard to train an ai that can be adapted to every it infrastrcuture. It also is a risk since it would mean giving ai access to 100% of the system, which is a concerning security risk.
One day there may be an ai that can do that, but even then it will require programmers that maintain the ai and check/test code that it wrote since someone will need to take responsbility for what the ai does. And since i cant even gurantee my own code to work at all times in different cases, I sure as hell wont take responbility for some ai code no matter how good the ai is
0 0 Reply
Jim C. 8 days ago
They don't care about code quality. If it works, it's good enough. Look at the video game industry. They release broken crap and fix it later. All companies have switched to Unreal to save money and have a replaceable talent pool. All unique / groundup solutions are going to disappear.

PR review is getting handled by AI now. Gemini, Copilot, and CodeRabbit are taking over.

Security has always been weak. They just force 2 factor and call it a day. Look at the NPM supply attacks because one guy took the bait on an email.
0 0 Reply
Aleksander 16 days ago
After reading some of the comments. Here is my take on it. AI can give you a doctor diagnosis based pictures and laboratory samples. That diagnosis can be correct and human doctor can make a mistake and give the wrong diagnosis based on the same case. But ... AI can never replace human doctors not now not in the following 20 years. Programmers are in the same fold.
0 0 Reply
Sinus46 (Niski) 1 month ago
AI cannot create new content outside of the data it was trained on. There is no way that an AI can write an entire new computer program without first looking at actual programs written by humans
1 1 Reply
Francesco Giovannini (Niski) 1 month ago
Contrary to popular belief, the work of a quality programmer is very creative and is not easily replaceable by automated processes.
2 0 Reply
Mark Orsted (Niski) 2 months ago
I think that we cannot trust software to understand the human experience. I use agentic and non-agentic AI to help code now, after 30 years doing this, and it's primary benefit is saving me from typing a lot of code that I know how to write, and can confirm is written properly, or correct as needed. The "correct as needed" factor is VERY high still.
3 2 Reply
Dev (Umiarkowany) 2 months ago
AI adds another attack surface to software development companies
1 0 Reply
Titus (Bardzo prawdopodobne) 2 months ago
Once A.I. overtakes human intelligence it will write billions of lines of code error free with simple prompts from any person wanting a digital product. Why would any company need overpaid, error prone people at that point. Learn a trade quickly programmers!
1 13 Reply
Jim 1 month ago
AI is not intelligent at all. It uses basic pattern matching and heuristics. That is why it needs massive amounts of training data, most of which is created by companies. This has big limitations and second order effects like how AI will be biased according to data (Facial recognition software labels black people gorillas, etc, grok with neo-nazi views).
1 1 Reply
Swayam Bhowmick (Bardzo prawdopodobne) 2 months ago
Everyone who's commenting and judging is basing their judgment on the current state of things. But, the current state is rapidly evolving, and most people are failing to account for the trajectory that the progress of AI is taking. 2 years ago, we were laughing at AI-generated videos of Will Smith eating spaghetti; today, the realism sends shivers down our spines. 2 years ago, AI generated broken code, now, it's capabale of somewhat functional code, replacing junior devs entirely.

Please take into account the trajectory of progress rather than the current state of things.
7 3 Reply
Ab (Bardzo prawdopodobne) 3 months ago
It does not require any physical interaction with the real world
1 10 Reply
Habs (Niepewny) 3 months ago
Software development includes understanding requirements and talking to customers (who do not know what they want). My job will be heavily automated but not yet to be fully replaced by AI.
2 2 Reply
Name (Niski) 3 months ago
AIs kind of suck at programming and logic they always add more bugs into my code
11 4 Reply
A 3 months ago
Currently. What about in 10 years though
9 1 Reply
John 3 months ago
Just as a few other professions, I’d say it would simply be limited to reducing unspecialized, entry-level positions. Those who find a niche would find that programming with chatbots are like lugging a junior dev that doesn’t learn around.
1 0 Reply
Everyone’s in denial 4 months ago
I am not saying I support the automation of everything, it’s just that in reality no one is safe as it accelerates. This is not just an assistant, nor just a displacement of humans, it is the complete replacement of the human mind. Pandora’s box was opened, now we have no idea if we will enter dystopia or utopia...
9 6 Reply
Jordan 3 months ago
No it is not. LLM's don't replicate how human brains work at all.
4 2 Reply
Tony B (Niski) 4 months ago
AI has so far been good for created standard well known solutions. It is not good at all at understanding large amounts of existing code.
7 3 Reply
Jersey Jim 4 months ago
Getting better every week. MCP. Augment Code. LLM rules.
2 1 Reply
Shadencus 15 days ago
Doesn't matter since it not only needs to understand the code but also the tech stack(Azure, Django, bamboo, etc.) which runs the code and even if you train your ai for that, that its only useful for the code in that specific environment. And I dont even want to start about security risks
0 0 Reply
Mu (Niski) 4 months ago
They will be reduced but not entirely replaced. This can be in ai research to improve the programming or new novel types of Research
1 2 Reply
Jacob (Niski) 5 months ago
It will change a sofware engineer is still going to be required to check the code. You aren't going to want this to automated that's crazy.
5 0 Reply
Timothy (Umiarkowany) 5 months ago
"For example, tasks or task components that appeal to capacities in which AI systems excel, will have to be less (or less fully) mastered by people, so that less training will probably be required. AI systems are already much better than people at logically and arithmetically correct gathering (selecting) and processing (weighing, prioritizing, analyzing, combining) large amounts of data. They do this quickly, accurately and reliably. They are also more stable (consistent) than humans, have no stress and emotions and have a great perseverance and a much better retention of knowledge and skills than people. As a machine, they serve people completely and without any “self-interest” or “own hidden agenda.”"
0 0 Reply
Michał (Bardzo prawdopodobne) 5 months ago
Without knowing programming at this point you can easily write a good program with the help of AI. I completely agree that this work can be automated.
0 9 Reply
Jordan 3 months ago
There's a serious difference between it works and it works correctly. Without understanding the code and testing it, all you've done is make a polished turd.
2 0 Reply
TAmzid2872 (Niepewny) 6 months ago
Programming isnt just about writing code, its about problem solving
12 0 Reply
Sven H. (Bardzo prawdopodobne) 6 months ago
AI can already code extremely well; there will be no need for human programmers in the future.
1 8 Reply

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