Piloci komercyjni

Umiarkowane Ryzyko
46%

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RYZYKO AUTOMATYZACJI
OBLICZONY
55%
(Umiarkowane Ryzyko)
ANKIETOWANIE
36%
(Niskie ryzyko, Na podstawie 2 487 głosów)
Average: 46%
POPYT NA PRACĘ
WZROST
5,7%
do roku 2033
PŁACE
113 080 $
lub 54,36 $ za godzinę
Objętość
52 750
od 2023
STRESZCZENIE
Co przedstawia ten płatek śniegu?
Płatek Śniegu to graficzne podsumowanie pięciu odznak: Ryzyko Automatyzacji (obliczane), Ryzyko (sondażowe), Wzrost, Płace i Wolumen. Daje Ci natychmiastowy obraz profilu zawodu. Kolor Płatka Śniegu odnosi się do jego rozmiaru. Im lepiej zawód wypada w porównaniu do innych, tym Płatek Śniegu staje się większy i bardziej zielony.
WYNIK PRACY
6,5/10
Co to jest?
Wynik pracy (im wyższy, tym lepszy):

Oceniamy prace, biorąc pod uwagę cztery czynniki. Są to:

- Szansa na automatyzację
- Wzrost zatrudnienia
- Wynagrodzenie
- Liczba dostępnych stanowisk

Są to kluczowe rzeczy, o których warto pomyśleć podczas poszukiwania pracy.

Ludzie również oglądali

Programiści komputerowi Adwokaci Aktorzy Deweloperzy stron internetowych Projektanci grafiki

Obliczone ryzyko automatyzacji

55% (Umiarkowane Ryzyko)

Umiarkowane ryzyko (41-60%): Zawody z umiarkowanym ryzykiem automatyzacji zwykle obejmują rutynowe zadania, ale nadal wymagają pewnego ludzkiego osądu i interakcji.

Więcej informacji na temat tego, czym jest ten wynik i jak jest obliczany, jest dostępne tutaj.

Niektóre dość ważne cechy pracy są trudne do zautomatyzowania:

  • Ciasna Przestrzeń Pracy, Niezręczne Pozycje

  • Zręczność manualna

  • Zręczność palców

  • Pomaganie i opieka nad innymi

  • Spostrzegawczość Społeczna

Ankieta użytkownika

36% szansa na pełną automatyzację w ciągu najbliższych dwóch dekad

Nasi goście zagłosowali, że jest małe prawdopodobieństwo, iż ten zawód zostanie zautomatyzowany. Jednakże, wygenerowany przez nas poziom ryzyka automatyzacji sugeruje wyższą szansę na automatyzację: 55% szans na automatyzację.

Jakie są Twoje zdanie na temat ryzyka automatyzacji?

Jakie jest prawdopodobieństwo, że Piloci komercyjni zostanie zastąpione przez roboty lub sztuczną inteligencję w ciągu najbliższych 20 lat?

Nastroje

Poniższy wykres jest wyświetlany tam, gdzie jest wystarczająca liczba głosów, aby uzyskać znaczące dane. Przedstawia wyniki ankiet użytkowników w czasie, dając wyraźny obraz trendów nastrojów.

Nastroje w czasie (kwartalnie)

Nastroje w czasie (rocznie)

Wzrost

Szybki wzrost w porównaniu do innych zawodów

Liczba ofert pracy na stanowisku 'Commercial Pilots' ma wzrosnąć 5,7% do 2033

Całkowite zatrudnienie oraz szacowane oferty pracy

* Dane z Biura Statystyki Pracy za okres pomiędzy 2023 a 2033
Zaktualizowane prognozy mają być dostępne 09-2025.

Płace

Bardzo wysoko opłacany w porównaniu do innych profesji

W 2023, mediana rocznej pensji dla 'Commercial Pilots' wynosiła 113 080 $, czyli 54 $ za godzinę.

'Commercial Pilots' otrzymali wynagrodzenie wyższe o 135,3% od średniej krajowej, która wynosiła 48 060 $

Płace z biegiem czasu

* Dane z Biura Statystyki Pracy

Objętość

Umiarkowany zakres możliwości pracy w porównaniu do innych zawodów

Od 2023 roku zatrudnionych było 52 750 osób na stanowisku 'Commercial Pilots' w Stanach Zjednoczonych.

To oznacza około < 0,001% zatrudnionej siły roboczej w całym kraju.

Inaczej mówiąc, około 1 na 2 tysiąc osób jest zatrudnionych jako 'Commercial Pilots'.

Opis stanowiska pracy

Pilotuj i nawiguj lot samolotów o stałym skrzydle na trasach przewoźników lotniczych nieobjętych harmonogramem, lub śmigłowców. Wymagane jest posiadanie certyfikatu pilota komercyjnego. Obejmuje to pilotów czarterowych z podobnym certyfikatem, a także pilotów karetek powietrznych i pilotów wycieczek lotniczych. Nie dotyczy pilotów linii regionalnych, krajowych i międzynarodowych.

SOC Code: 53-2012.00

Komentarze (107)

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Luke (Nie ma szans)
15 paź 2024 19:33
Pilots can do things robots can't. Somtimes you can't follow the rules and need to break them. Think about the gimli glider. The pilot had no landing gear, he was way too high and way too fast. He did a side slip menuveur, only able to be completed in glider aircraft. It was a risky move but it would have to be done if they wanted to land. They succeded by breaking the rules and testing the limits. That is somthing that can nevery be done by a robot.
Dominic Fernandez (Nie ma szans)
18 gru 2025 18:14
The tech is just not there yet, federal laws definitely would not condone it, and public support behind such a rushed technology would probably be non-existent.
LudditeCSci
05 lut 2026 03:31
We're not talking about "yet". We're talking about "in 20 years". And the answer, as a computer scientist who used to work with AI, is "I'd bet my home on it". The question isn't really about the tech; it's whether the public, government, unions etc. will accept or reject the practice and whether any permutation of their opinions actually matter in aggregate.

Personally, I think people will accept it surprisingly quickly after some initial hesitancy, just like there was with AI-generated content and general purpose LLM chatbots at the beginning. (There still is resistance - and I'm part of it - but ChatGPT etc. has already taken a huge chunk out of Google's market share, and I know so many people of all ages who treat its answers as gospel.) By the time Gen Alpha has come of age, long before 2046, unmanned cars and planes will be a standard part of their life, like so many "robot" jobs.
LudditeCSci
05 lut 2026 03:46
Edit to add: Airlines only have to start carrying cargo unmanned for 5-10 years before saying, "look, we've flown x hundred thousand trips without a single crash", compare it to the >0 rate that'll inevitably occur on manned flights, and many people will accept that. Certainly enough to create a snowball effect. People, generally, are very poor at judging timelines: if you told the people of early 2020 that we could do what we can now with AI by this point, they would have broadly said "no way". When I'm looking at job scores on this site, I'm usually looking at the generated estimate. A lot of people here are in denial and trying to defend their own current or desired future professions. (As a computer scientist, my field has been absolutely rocked by AI. Even I had doubts that it could do as much damage as rapidly as it has. But I hold everyone's fields to the same realistic and pessimistic standards -- in the case of technological unemployment, pessimism IS realism.)
Mani salah (Niski)
13 lis 2024 03:49
The artificial intllegence can't replace the human's emotion and it's way of thinking in some situations and must be supervised by a trained and experienced pilot
grummangrouse45 (Niepewny)
08 maj 2024 12:13
The technology required to do it is almost here, the only significant hurdle is the trust of passengers. Once the general population trusts AI/robots enough to put their lives in it's hands, pilots won't be as needed. However, that day may never come, and there are still things which technology can't do yet (respond to emergencies, handle passengers, aircraft repairs, etc.).
Rip (Niski)
18 gru 2023 12:05
No flight is the same. No robot could do what sully did.
Eryk Kowalczyk
27 sty 2026 05:15
Autopilot is already a large part of flight, and as AI gets better, there could be a chance. Even though AI is not perfect, and some people don't trust it, remember that many incidents, if not a majority, such as Air France 447, resulted in human error. Pilot error accounts for about 60 to 80% of plane crashes.
Matheus (Niski)
10 sie 2024 02:44
The competent regulatory body, (FAA) is VERY conservative. So even if we had the technology, I doubt that they would allow autonomous commercial planes.
In this case, regulation is the hold-up, not the technology.
Dee Snuts (Nie ma szans)
22 kwi 2024 21:22
If the automated system went down because of a storm or someone forgetting to turn their phone on airplane mode then every passenger is screwed
Anonymous (Niski)
24 sty 2024 08:14
People would not trust robots, which are feared, to fly them, especially when flying is also feared by most people. They would much rather trust humans who can reassure them and are experienced. Also, companies would also be hesitant to incorporate robots as many of them do not have the money required and any lawsuits following a crash would be devastating and would end the whole industry potentially.
Sai rithwik (Niski)
10 sie 2023 18:06
I don't believe robots can take on the role of commercial pilots due to the potential risks involved.

Allowing robots to operate planes that carry varying numbers of passengers, such as smaller regional jets accommodating around 50 to 100 passengers, and larger airliners like the Boeing 737 or Airbus A320 series carrying between 140 to 240 passengers, or wide-body aircraft like the Boeing 777 or Airbus A380 with capacities ranging from around 300 to over 800 passengers, could pose significant risks to people's lives.

The possibility of robot malfunctions raises concerns about placing full trust in their abilities.
Eli (Niski)
16 maj 2023 02:51
Most passengers feel like they need at least 1 human pilot to be safe. you can program a robot to do something but it has no clue what to do if something goes wrong.
LudditeCSci (Bardzo prawdopodobne)
05 lut 2026 03:06
The idea that the "public won't accept it" or "government won't go for it" is naive over a 20 year timescale. The question isn't "Will it happen imminently?"; there's a large emphasis on the two decades. Between "15 minute cities", limited travel, Net Zero, and carbon taxes (i.e. UN policies based on SDGs), it's unclear if there will be a travel industry in 20 years, let alone a need for large numbers of commercial pilots.

Rightly or wrongly, with the number of DEI initiatives at present and several recent high-profile transport incidents caused by user error, I foresee many people choosing AI over humans in life-or-death professions. I make no judgement on that, personally, but I know a lot of people are bearish on such hiring policies, especially in critical industries. As for the technology, one only need look at the progress of AI in automated driving since 2020 to see that self-flying planes will almost surely exist by 2045. (I'm a computer scientist, by the way. My own job will be gone too -- and much sooner. I'm opposed to AI on principle and I've grown to hate my own field. But I've also got to be honest about it because I understand where we are.)
Oli (Niski)
08 lis 2025 20:37
People will not trust to get on a plane from the current generations unless there is a qualified pilot onboard. Many people already have fear of flying and this would just make it worse for them since there is no real human being in the cockpit and it is controlled remotely. Additionally, it is just generally safer for a real human pilot as they are able to use their experience and training across emergency situations. For example, AI is very procedural and programmed to do exactly what manuals and procedures say, but what if there is a catastrophic emergency that requires quick-thinking? Many emergencies are procedural however there are exceptions when a pilots own experience is necessary for the safety of others. Plus, a real pilot is going to have empathy and adrenaline in a emergency situation as they also want to save themselves.. A remote controlled plane or AI powered plane won't have this and it will be a completely different situation. Maybe 20-30 years there could be single-pilot operations but no full automation.
CFIguy (Nie ma szans)
01 cze 2025 01:14
We already have the technology to automate aviation, but I see no chance of it happening in the next few decades. The FAA moves slowly, airlines are controlled by pilot unions, and the AI would much much more real world training to understand emergency situations before it would be trusted with autonomously flying an aircraft. Maybe by 2060 we might see some planes go automated, but until then it is still a very rewarding and fun career to pursue.
Luca (Niski)
05 mar 2025 21:39
requires human interference in accidents and emergencies
have to be 1000% reliable in order to not cause problems
can scare public away
Felipe (Niski)
04 mar 2025 01:43
Simple. The pilot is the hierarchy within the system. Today, AI can indeed perform even complex tasks, but you can never trust an AI 100% to pilot an airplane. The critical factor is simple: if there is any change or problem with the aircraft, a pilot can act quickly by not strictly following airline protocols. Following protocols 100% does not always guarantee safety.

Examples like TACA Flight 110, where a Boeing 737-300 lost both engines, show this. Instead of following the manual and returning, the pilots landed on the grass ahead, which was the right decision. This applies to many situations. In the case of United Airlines Flight 232, it's another example. Following the correct protocols isn't always the right choice and can sometimes prevent worse tragedies.

In the United case, let's suppose an AI is in command and the plane loses all three hydraulic systems. The company's manual doesn't cover a situation where all engines are lost. At that moment, what would the AI do? Even if it follows the tower controller's voice commands correctly, it’s impossible to determine the flight's fate because there's no human inside. However, this isn't to say that following protocols is always wrong. It’s just a reminder to follow protocols, but if you ever need to break them, it should be in a life-or-death situation.
Bao Nam (Nie ma szans)
02 lip 2024 08:57
Because flying airplanes is very hard to do, if done not correctly, the plane could crash, the A.I is smart but some times the A.I will have errors that cannot be fixed. I think just that.
Sina (Nie ma szans)
26 maj 2024 18:12
A human being is required to accept legal responsibility
LeftE81 (Nie ma szans)
04 gru 2023 03:59
They can't handle emergencies
Sumik Chhaliwal (Niski)
03 lis 2023 15:50
I don't think robots will fully take over the "Commercial Pilot" job 'cause you always need human intelligence instead of artificial intelligence for a safe journey.

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