Aperçu
Risque d'Automatisation
2. Sondage Utilisateur
3. Croissance
4. Salaires
5. Volume
Description
Ressources
Commentaires

Programmeurs Informatiques

Haut Risque
70%
Où souhaitez-vous aller ensuite ?
Partagez vos résultats avec vos amis et votre famille.
Ou, explorez cette profession en détail...
RISQUE D'AUTOMATISATION
CALCULÉ
70%
(Haut Risque)
SONDAGE
70%
(Haut Risque)
Average: 70%
DEMANDE DE TRAVAIL
CROISSANCE
-9,6 %
par l'année 2033
SALAIRES
99 700 $
ou 47,93 $ par heure
Volume
120 370
à partir du 2023
RÉSUMÉ
SCORE DE TRAVAIL
3,5/10

Les gens ont également vu

Avocats
Développeurs Web
Concepteurs graphiques
Acteurs
Ingénieurs/Architectes de Systèmes Informatiques

Risque d'automatisation calculé

70% (Haut Risque)

Risque Élevé (61-80%) : Les emplois dans cette catégorie font face à une menace significative de l'automatisation, car beaucoup de leurs tâches peuvent être facilement automatisées en utilisant les technologies actuelles ou proches du futur.

Plus d'informations sur ce que représente ce score et comment il est calculé sont disponibles ici.

Certaines qualités assez importantes du travail sont difficiles à automatiser :

  • Perceptivité Sociale

  • Originalité

Sondage utilisateur

70% chance de pleine automatisation au cours des deux prochaines décennies

Nos visiteurs ont voté qu'il est probable que cette profession sera automatisée. Cette évaluation est davantage soutenue par le niveau de risque d'automatisation calculé, qui estime 70% de chances d'automatisation.

Que pensez-vous du risque de l'automatisation?

Quelle est la probabilité que Programmeurs Informatiques soit remplacé par des robots ou l'intelligence artificielle dans les 20 prochaines années ?






Sentiment

Le graphique suivant est inclus chaque fois qu'il y a un nombre substantiel de votes pour rendre les données significatives. Ces représentations visuelles affichent les résultats des sondages utilisateurs au fil du temps, fournissant une indication significative des tendances de sentiment.

Sentiment au fil du temps (trimestriel)

Sentiment au fil du temps (annuellement)

Croissance

Une croissance très lente par rapport à d'autres professions.

On s'attend à ce que le nombre d'offres d'emploi pour 'Computer Programmers' diminue 9,6% d'ici 2033

Emploi total, et estimations des offres d'emploi

* Données de la Bureau of Labor Statistics pour la période entre 2023 et 2033
Les prévisions mises à jour sont attendues 09-2025.

Salaires

Très bien rémunéré par rapport à d'autres professions

En 2023, le salaire annuel médian pour 'Computer Programmers' était de 99 700 $, soit 47 $ par heure.

'Computer Programmers' ont été payés 107,4% de plus que le salaire médian national, qui était de 48 060 $

Salaires au fil du temps

* Données provenant du Bureau des Statistiques du Travail

Volume

Une plus grande gamme d'opportunités d'emploi comparée à d'autres professions

À partir de 2023, il y avait 120 370 personnes employées en tant que 'Computer Programmers' aux États-Unis.

Cela représente environ 0,08% de la main-d'œuvre employée à travers le pays

Autrement dit, environ 1 personne sur 1 mille est employée en tant que 'Computer Programmers'.

Description du poste

Créez, modifiez et testez le code et les scripts qui permettent aux applications informatiques de fonctionner. Travaillez à partir de spécifications établies par des développeurs de logiciels et de sites web ou d'autres individus. Vous pouvez développer et écrire des programmes informatiques pour stocker, localiser et récupérer des documents, des données et des informations spécifiques.

SOC Code: 15-1251.00

Commentaires

Leave a comment

Shadencus (Faible) 1 month ago
Because programming good maintainable code requires understanding the greater project structure and deciding whats important and whats isn't. Also many programming problems require unique solutions, that may be similiar to each other but fundmentally different.
So its pretty hard to train an ai that can be adapted to every it infrastrcuture. It also is a risk since it would mean giving ai access to 100% of the system, which is a concerning security risk.
One day there may be an ai that can do that, but even then it will require programmers that maintain the ai and check/test code that it wrote since someone will need to take responsbility for what the ai does. And since i cant even gurantee my own code to work at all times in different cases, I sure as hell wont take responbility for some ai code no matter how good the ai is
3 1 Reply
Jim C. 1 month ago
They don't care about code quality. If it works, it's good enough. Look at the video game industry. They release broken crap and fix it later. All companies have switched to Unreal to save money and have a replaceable talent pool. All unique / groundup solutions are going to disappear.

PR review is getting handled by AI now. Gemini, Copilot, and CodeRabbit are taking over.

Security has always been weak. They just force 2 factor and call it a day. Look at the NPM supply attacks because one guy took the bait on an email.
1 3 Reply
Aleksander 1 month ago
After reading some of the comments. Here is my take on it. AI can give you a doctor diagnosis based pictures and laboratory samples. That diagnosis can be correct and human doctor can make a mistake and give the wrong diagnosis based on the same case. But ... AI can never replace human doctors not now not in the following 20 years. Programmers are in the same fold.
1 1 Reply
Sinus46 (Faible) 2 months ago
AI cannot create new content outside of the data it was trained on. There is no way that an AI can write an entire new computer program without first looking at actual programs written by humans
2 2 Reply
Francesco Giovannini (Faible) 2 months ago
Contrary to popular belief, the work of a quality programmer is very creative and is not easily replaceable by automated processes.
2 1 Reply
Mark Orsted (Faible) 3 months ago
I think that we cannot trust software to understand the human experience. I use agentic and non-agentic AI to help code now, after 30 years doing this, and it's primary benefit is saving me from typing a lot of code that I know how to write, and can confirm is written properly, or correct as needed. The "correct as needed" factor is VERY high still.
3 3 Reply
Dev (Modéré) 3 months ago
AI adds another attack surface to software development companies
1 1 Reply
Titus (Très probable) 3 months ago
Once A.I. overtakes human intelligence it will write billions of lines of code error free with simple prompts from any person wanting a digital product. Why would any company need overpaid, error prone people at that point. Learn a trade quickly programmers!
1 16 Reply
Jim 2 months ago
AI is not intelligent at all. It uses basic pattern matching and heuristics. That is why it needs massive amounts of training data, most of which is created by companies. This has big limitations and second order effects like how AI will be biased according to data (Facial recognition software labels black people gorillas, etc, grok with neo-nazi views).
4 2 Reply
Swayam Bhowmick (Très probable) 3 months ago
Everyone who's commenting and judging is basing their judgment on the current state of things. But, the current state is rapidly evolving, and most people are failing to account for the trajectory that the progress of AI is taking. 2 years ago, we were laughing at AI-generated videos of Will Smith eating spaghetti; today, the realism sends shivers down our spines. 2 years ago, AI generated broken code, now, it's capabale of somewhat functional code, replacing junior devs entirely.

Please take into account the trajectory of progress rather than the current state of things.
7 6 Reply
Mel Medarda 5 days ago
We don't know the trajectory. We only know that for now, progress has plateaued.

But though AI (= LLMs) has gotten better in the sense of creating more complex outputs, it otherwise suffers from exactly the same problems as early versions: no compositionality, no continual learning, no consistency, and no self-correction.

If you ask it to fix a certain bug fix in a complex codebase, you have a high chance that it also starts to change something completely unrelated. It doesn't really grasp how precisely elements make up the complex whole; instead, it applies pattern-matching, by which it gets misled. You can waste days with AI on what would be a five-minute manual fix.

Also, junior devs' job isn't to churn out mediocre code for generic, long-solved tasks or create the 1000th to-do list app. Instead, they get onboarded and are supposed to familiarize themselves with your codebase to improve it. But you know that "PT" in ChatGPT stands for "pre-trained?" So AI doesn't learn anything new. AI is like suffering from anterograde amnesia.

Anyway, neither apps nor code are like a commodity where "more is better". In the end, the point is to create something new. Otherwise there is not much point: just use an already existing and tested library. And it's exactly the "new" part where AI sucks because it struggles to transcend its training data.

So no, AI is incapable of replacing junior devs.

It would have a lot of immediate positive effects if AI worked like you describe: it would insanely empower open-source projects (often lacking maintainers) to fix all their long lists of bugs or introduce new features. But this is not what we observe at all. Because AI is overhyped and underdelivers.
0 0 Reply
Ab (Très probable) 3 months ago
It does not require any physical interaction with the real world
1 13 Reply
Habs (Incertain) 4 months ago
Software development includes understanding requirements and talking to customers (who do not know what they want). My job will be heavily automated but not yet to be fully replaced by AI.
2 3 Reply
Name (Faible) 4 months ago
AIs kind of suck at programming and logic they always add more bugs into my code
12 5 Reply
A 4 months ago
Currently. What about in 10 years though
10 3 Reply
John 4 months ago
Just as a few other professions, I’d say it would simply be limited to reducing unspecialized, entry-level positions. Those who find a niche would find that programming with chatbots are like lugging a junior dev that doesn’t learn around.
1 1 Reply
Everyone’s in denial 5 months ago
I am not saying I support the automation of everything, it’s just that in reality no one is safe as it accelerates. This is not just an assistant, nor just a displacement of humans, it is the complete replacement of the human mind. Pandora’s box was opened, now we have no idea if we will enter dystopia or utopia...
9 7 Reply
Jordan 4 months ago
No it is not. LLM's don't replicate how human brains work at all.
4 3 Reply
Tony B (Faible) 5 months ago
AI has so far been good for created standard well known solutions. It is not good at all at understanding large amounts of existing code.
8 4 Reply
Jersey Jim 4 months ago
Getting better every week. MCP. Augment Code. LLM rules.
2 3 Reply
Shadencus 1 month ago
Doesn't matter since it not only needs to understand the code but also the tech stack(Azure, Django, bamboo, etc.) which runs the code and even if you train your ai for that, that its only useful for the code in that specific environment. And I dont even want to start about security risks
0 1 Reply
Mu (Faible) 5 months ago
They will be reduced but not entirely replaced. This can be in ai research to improve the programming or new novel types of Research
1 3 Reply
Jacob (Faible) 5 months ago
It will change a sofware engineer is still going to be required to check the code. You aren't going to want this to automated that's crazy.
5 1 Reply
Timothy (Modéré) 6 months ago
"For example, tasks or task components that appeal to capacities in which AI systems excel, will have to be less (or less fully) mastered by people, so that less training will probably be required. AI systems are already much better than people at logically and arithmetically correct gathering (selecting) and processing (weighing, prioritizing, analyzing, combining) large amounts of data. They do this quickly, accurately and reliably. They are also more stable (consistent) than humans, have no stress and emotions and have a great perseverance and a much better retention of knowledge and skills than people. As a machine, they serve people completely and without any “self-interest” or “own hidden agenda.”"
0 1 Reply
Michał (Très probable) 6 months ago
Without knowing programming at this point you can easily write a good program with the help of AI. I completely agree that this work can be automated.
2 10 Reply
Jordan 4 months ago
There's a serious difference between it works and it works correctly. Without understanding the code and testing it, all you've done is make a polished turd.
2 1 Reply
TAmzid2872 (Incertain) 7 months ago
Programming isnt just about writing code, its about problem solving
12 1 Reply
Sven H. (Très probable) 7 months ago
AI can already code extremely well; there will be no need for human programmers in the future.
1 9 Reply

Laissez un commentaire sur cette profession

Ce site est protégé par reCAPTCHA et la Politique de Confidentialité et les Conditions d'Utilisation de Google s'appliquent.