Übersicht
Automatisierungsrisiko
2. Benutzerumfrage
3. Wachstum
4. Löhne
5. Volumen
Beschreibung
Ressourcen
Kommentare

Computerprogrammierer

Hohes Risiko
70%
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AUTOMATISIERUNGSRISIKO
BERECHNET
70%
(Hohes Risiko)
UMFRAGE
70%
(Hohes Risiko)
Average: 70%
ARBEITSNACHFRAGE
WACHSTUM
-9,6 %
bis zum Jahr 2033
LÖHNE
99.700 $
oder 47,93 $ pro Stunde
Volumen
120.370
ab dem 2023
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG
ARBEITSPUNKTZAHL
3,5/10

Personen haben sich auch angesehen

Rechtsanwälte
Webentwickler
Grafikdesigner
Schauspieler
Computersystem-Ingenieure/Architekten

Berechnetes Automatisierungsrisiko

70% (Hohes Risiko)

Hohes Risiko (61-80%): Arbeitsplätze in dieser Kategorie sind einer erheblichen Bedrohung durch Automatisierung ausgesetzt, da viele ihrer Aufgaben mit aktuellen oder nahen zukünftigen Technologien leicht automatisiert werden können.

Weitere Informationen darüber, was dieser Wert ist und wie er berechnet wird, sind verfügbar hier.

Einige ziemlich wichtige Eigenschaften des Jobs sind schwer zu automatisieren:

  • Soziale Wahrnehmungsfähigkeit

  • Originalität

Benutzerumfrage

70% Chance auf vollständige Automatisierung in den nächsten zwei Jahrzehnten

Unsere Besucher haben abgestimmt, dass es wahrscheinlich ist, dass dieser Beruf automatisiert wird. Diese Einschätzung wird weiterhin durch das berechnete Automatisierungsrisiko unterstützt, welches eine 70% Chance der Automatisierung schätzt.

Was denken Sie, ist das Risiko der Automatisierung?

Wie hoch ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass Computerprogrammierer in den nächsten 20 Jahren durch Roboter oder künstliche Intelligenz ersetzt wird?






Gefühl

Das folgende Diagramm wird überall dort eingefügt, wo eine beträchtliche Anzahl von Stimmen vorliegt, um aussagekräftige Daten darzustellen. Diese visuellen Darstellungen zeigen die Ergebnisse von Nutzerumfragen im Laufe der Zeit und geben einen wichtigen Hinweis auf Stimmungstrends.

Gefühlslage über die Zeit (vierteljährlich)

Gefühlslage über die Zeit (jährlich)

Wachstum

Sehr langsames Wachstum im Vergleich zu anderen Berufen.

Die Anzahl der 'Computer Programmers' Stellenangebote wird voraussichtlich um 9,6% bis 2033 sinken.

Gesamtbeschäftigung und geschätzte Stellenangebote

* Daten des Bureau of Labor Statistics für den Zeitraum zwischen 2023 und 2033
Aktualisierte Prognosen sind fällig 09-2025.

Löhne

Sehr hoch bezahlt im Vergleich zu anderen Berufen

Im Jahr 2023 betrug das mittlere Jahresgehalt für 'Computer Programmers' 99.700 $, oder 47 $ pro Stunde.

'Computer Programmers' wurden 107,4% höher bezahlt als der nationale Medianlohn, der bei 48.060 $ lag.

Löhne über die Zeit

* Daten vom Bureau of Labor Statistics

Volumen

Größeres Spektrum an Arbeitsmöglichkeiten im Vergleich zu anderen Berufen

Ab dem 2023 waren 120.370 Personen als 'Computer Programmers' in den Vereinigten Staaten beschäftigt.

Dies entspricht etwa 0,08% der erwerbstätigen Bevölkerung im ganzen Land.

Anders ausgedrückt, ist etwa 1 von 1 Tausend Personen als 'Computer Programmers' beschäftigt.

Stellenbeschreibung

Erstellen, ändern und testen Sie den Code und die Skripte, die es Computeranwendungen ermöglichen zu laufen. Arbeiten Sie nach Spezifikationen, die von Software- und Webentwicklern oder anderen Personen erstellt wurden. Sie können Computerprogramme entwickeln und schreiben, um spezifische Dokumente, Daten und Informationen zu speichern, zu lokalisieren und abzurufen.

SOC Code: 15-1251.00

Kommentare

Leave a comment

Shadencus (Niedrig) 1 month ago
Because programming good maintainable code requires understanding the greater project structure and deciding whats important and whats isn't. Also many programming problems require unique solutions, that may be similiar to each other but fundmentally different.
So its pretty hard to train an ai that can be adapted to every it infrastrcuture. It also is a risk since it would mean giving ai access to 100% of the system, which is a concerning security risk.
One day there may be an ai that can do that, but even then it will require programmers that maintain the ai and check/test code that it wrote since someone will need to take responsbility for what the ai does. And since i cant even gurantee my own code to work at all times in different cases, I sure as hell wont take responbility for some ai code no matter how good the ai is
3 1 Reply
Jim C. 1 month ago
They don't care about code quality. If it works, it's good enough. Look at the video game industry. They release broken crap and fix it later. All companies have switched to Unreal to save money and have a replaceable talent pool. All unique / groundup solutions are going to disappear.

PR review is getting handled by AI now. Gemini, Copilot, and CodeRabbit are taking over.

Security has always been weak. They just force 2 factor and call it a day. Look at the NPM supply attacks because one guy took the bait on an email.
1 3 Reply
Aleksander 1 month ago
After reading some of the comments. Here is my take on it. AI can give you a doctor diagnosis based pictures and laboratory samples. That diagnosis can be correct and human doctor can make a mistake and give the wrong diagnosis based on the same case. But ... AI can never replace human doctors not now not in the following 20 years. Programmers are in the same fold.
1 1 Reply
Sinus46 (Niedrig) 2 months ago
AI cannot create new content outside of the data it was trained on. There is no way that an AI can write an entire new computer program without first looking at actual programs written by humans
2 2 Reply
Francesco Giovannini (Niedrig) 2 months ago
Contrary to popular belief, the work of a quality programmer is very creative and is not easily replaceable by automated processes.
2 1 Reply
Mark Orsted (Niedrig) 3 months ago
I think that we cannot trust software to understand the human experience. I use agentic and non-agentic AI to help code now, after 30 years doing this, and it's primary benefit is saving me from typing a lot of code that I know how to write, and can confirm is written properly, or correct as needed. The "correct as needed" factor is VERY high still.
3 3 Reply
Dev (Mäßig) 3 months ago
AI adds another attack surface to software development companies
1 1 Reply
Titus (Höchstwahrscheinlich) 3 months ago
Once A.I. overtakes human intelligence it will write billions of lines of code error free with simple prompts from any person wanting a digital product. Why would any company need overpaid, error prone people at that point. Learn a trade quickly programmers!
1 16 Reply
Jim 2 months ago
AI is not intelligent at all. It uses basic pattern matching and heuristics. That is why it needs massive amounts of training data, most of which is created by companies. This has big limitations and second order effects like how AI will be biased according to data (Facial recognition software labels black people gorillas, etc, grok with neo-nazi views).
4 2 Reply
Swayam Bhowmick (Höchstwahrscheinlich) 3 months ago
Everyone who's commenting and judging is basing their judgment on the current state of things. But, the current state is rapidly evolving, and most people are failing to account for the trajectory that the progress of AI is taking. 2 years ago, we were laughing at AI-generated videos of Will Smith eating spaghetti; today, the realism sends shivers down our spines. 2 years ago, AI generated broken code, now, it's capabale of somewhat functional code, replacing junior devs entirely.

Please take into account the trajectory of progress rather than the current state of things.
7 6 Reply
Mel Medarda 4 days ago
We don't know the trajectory. We only know that for now, progress has plateaued.

But though AI (= LLMs) has gotten better in the sense of creating more complex outputs, it otherwise suffers from exactly the same problems as early versions: no compositionality, no continual learning, no consistency, and no self-correction.

If you ask it to fix a certain bug fix in a complex codebase, you have a high chance that it also starts to change something completely unrelated. It doesn't really grasp how precisely elements make up the complex whole; instead, it applies pattern-matching, by which it gets misled. You can waste days with AI on what would be a five-minute manual fix.

Also, junior devs' job isn't to churn out mediocre code for generic, long-solved tasks or create the 1000th to-do list app. Instead, they get onboarded and are supposed to familiarize themselves with your codebase to improve it. But you know that "PT" in ChatGPT stands for "pre-trained?" So AI doesn't learn anything new. AI is like suffering from anterograde amnesia.

Anyway, neither apps nor code are like a commodity where "more is better". In the end, the point is to create something new. Otherwise there is not much point: just use an already existing and tested library. And it's exactly the "new" part where AI sucks because it struggles to transcend its training data.

So no, AI is incapable of replacing junior devs.

It would have a lot of immediate positive effects if AI worked like you describe: it would insanely empower open-source projects (often lacking maintainers) to fix all their long lists of bugs or introduce new features. But this is not what we observe at all. Because AI is overhyped and underdelivers.
0 0 Reply
Ab (Höchstwahrscheinlich) 3 months ago
It does not require any physical interaction with the real world
1 13 Reply
Habs (Unsicher) 4 months ago
Software development includes understanding requirements and talking to customers (who do not know what they want). My job will be heavily automated but not yet to be fully replaced by AI.
2 3 Reply
Name (Niedrig) 4 months ago
AIs kind of suck at programming and logic they always add more bugs into my code
12 5 Reply
A 4 months ago
Currently. What about in 10 years though
10 3 Reply
John 4 months ago
Just as a few other professions, I’d say it would simply be limited to reducing unspecialized, entry-level positions. Those who find a niche would find that programming with chatbots are like lugging a junior dev that doesn’t learn around.
1 1 Reply
Everyone’s in denial 5 months ago
I am not saying I support the automation of everything, it’s just that in reality no one is safe as it accelerates. This is not just an assistant, nor just a displacement of humans, it is the complete replacement of the human mind. Pandora’s box was opened, now we have no idea if we will enter dystopia or utopia...
9 7 Reply
Jordan 4 months ago
No it is not. LLM's don't replicate how human brains work at all.
4 3 Reply
Tony B (Niedrig) 5 months ago
AI has so far been good for created standard well known solutions. It is not good at all at understanding large amounts of existing code.
8 4 Reply
Jersey Jim 4 months ago
Getting better every week. MCP. Augment Code. LLM rules.
2 3 Reply
Shadencus 1 month ago
Doesn't matter since it not only needs to understand the code but also the tech stack(Azure, Django, bamboo, etc.) which runs the code and even if you train your ai for that, that its only useful for the code in that specific environment. And I dont even want to start about security risks
0 1 Reply
Mu (Niedrig) 5 months ago
They will be reduced but not entirely replaced. This can be in ai research to improve the programming or new novel types of Research
1 3 Reply
Jacob (Niedrig) 5 months ago
It will change a sofware engineer is still going to be required to check the code. You aren't going to want this to automated that's crazy.
5 1 Reply
Timothy (Mäßig) 6 months ago
"For example, tasks or task components that appeal to capacities in which AI systems excel, will have to be less (or less fully) mastered by people, so that less training will probably be required. AI systems are already much better than people at logically and arithmetically correct gathering (selecting) and processing (weighing, prioritizing, analyzing, combining) large amounts of data. They do this quickly, accurately and reliably. They are also more stable (consistent) than humans, have no stress and emotions and have a great perseverance and a much better retention of knowledge and skills than people. As a machine, they serve people completely and without any “self-interest” or “own hidden agenda.”"
0 1 Reply
Michał (Höchstwahrscheinlich) 6 months ago
Without knowing programming at this point you can easily write a good program with the help of AI. I completely agree that this work can be automated.
2 10 Reply
Jordan 4 months ago
There's a serious difference between it works and it works correctly. Without understanding the code and testing it, all you've done is make a polished turd.
2 1 Reply
TAmzid2872 (Unsicher) 7 months ago
Programming isnt just about writing code, its about problem solving
12 1 Reply
Sven H. (Höchstwahrscheinlich) 7 months ago
AI can already code extremely well; there will be no need for human programmers in the future.
1 9 Reply

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