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Just no. AI art looks and will always look awful and soulless. People who say "ohhh its ai it'll look better in the future" just dont know how AI works. AI isnt gonna replace ANY creative processes, EVER.

AI, at its current stages, can only replicate patterns it sees in the images and text it’s given. It isn’t capable of the knowledge behind the design choices in Graphic Design. AI doesn’t understand anatomy, color theory, or other aspects of art. However, this doesn’t mean that it can’t in the future, and it certainly doesn’t mean it can’t fool us into thinking it knows what it’s doing.

it's already seeing tides where ai has already replaced a lot, but no job will be replaced completely within 2 decades. its impractical to leave the job to ai completely, but layoffs and fewer manpower are definitely the way to go

A couple of years ago this was less than 5%. It is scary to see this advance in just 2 years

Looking that artist fight back against artificial intelligence by making Anti-AI Flitters that seems to lower the risk not to mention what you put as a reason for 34% risk which is that It's hard to automate Originality, fine arts.etc not to mention that every single artist have their own style even in the umbrella terms, for example you can't say style in Toilet Bound Hanako kun is the same as one in Blue Exorcist.etc.
In short: Even if hard it in theory could be possible, but I'm more for making that AI + Artist combo to help people with drawing.

Hey my fellow designers, i know we all can recognize a good work from a mediocre to bad one, we are trained on our field after all, however there are tons of clients who will see some ai generated slop and feel like it's good enough (specially for logos or illustration).

So yeah, i don't think corporate will slow down on their demand for professionals but freelance will take a huge tool (i think), i myself am trying to expand it as of late, art comissions were never stable but i loved to them (nowadays the chance of getting a client is probably close to 0 since a lot of basic stuff is covered for the average client without high standarts) so i opt out to learn how to tattoo, so maybe if it ever comes to lose my job because of some morons from the tech industry i might have something else to go by.

because graphic design requires good creativity, something robots dont have

Clients will get designs from automated AI, but they will start to look all very similar, lacking personality. A good graphic designer can listen to their clients and deliver what they ask, get feedback and adjust accordingly

motion graphics is too perfect to replicate

Most commentary here is from people who are either very young or very removed from the actual profession of graphic design or most art that is used professionally. It is not, at all, a field that is about "generating" art or designs. It is about exactness, specificity, and unintuitive associations. Exactness from customers, developers, clients, coworkers, bosses, etc.

The problem that people don't seem to understand is that all the generative ai programs right now produce art that's very cool to look at and art that no one would ever pay for, because they don't understand the point of paying for art in the first place.

There are billions of cool images you get get for free online right now. Graphic designers already compete against that, and yet, they're still paid.

Why?

The reason why artists are paid is because people want something very specific, and all generative AI right now, and in the future, will fail the specificity requirement because it by nature has to give probabilistic (aka common) answers, and as people adapt to AI art existing, the demands on specificity will increase.

Because they dont capture the same depth of emotion and they also dont look natural as they make movements too smooth

High barrier of entry, high returns and low maintenance career after about 15,000 hours.

AI keeps getting better with graphic design in general. Just look at things like Sora by OpenAI or the Microsoft Bing Image Creator, and then think about what that'll look like in a couple of years.

its easy to train ai on boring corporate designs

Design is quite a broad field and while it is not exactly fine arts it would be harder to get into and you would need to be better at your game.

It is more likely that designers will use artificial intelligence as a tool, as there are things that artificial intelligence will not be able to do, such as creating a completely original and coherent branding system.

20 years is a long time. Would you have expected this AI boom twenty years ago? Who knows how fast AI will develop in the future. Imagine showing someone SORA twenty years ago. They would be in disbelief.

Graphic design is too broad of a term in my opinion. There's logo design, web design, package design, wayfinding design, branding, mobile design, t-shirt design, print design, poster design, and much more.

Digital art and illustrations I think are already under threat. When the art being generated is general and the boundaries of art are more forgiving, then the general nature of AI will thrive. But for more exacting work like logo design, web design, and package design, AI struggles from my experience.

I have played around with Adobe's built-in AI tools for Illustrator and Photoshop. While they're cool to play with, I often find myself wasting time playing prompt engineering, when I could have created something on my own faster. If I as a designer don't have patience to prompt-engineer my way into a design, I'm certain clients won't either.

There's also levels to graphic design. Maybe AI will get rid of the bad designers and the bad clients! But the precise, custom, unique work that many clients look for is hard to replace.

Lastly, being a graphic designer is more than just the technical skills. It's about directing a vision for the design. Even if AI is 100% perfect, it may not understand the client's needs.

AIs like Adobe Firefly are improving at being precise on which image you wish to create.

there are websites like ideogram.ai that can generate logs with whatever text we want to add, by just prompting. certainly the demand of engineers will become low in the coming years

As mentioned, one main part of it requires originality, human touch and knowledge and great examination and execution of details, plus having one graphic designer with great coverage in many forms of media can be better than 10 ais together