Overzicht
Automatiseringsrisico
2. Gebruikerspeiling
3. Groei
4. Loon
5. Volume
Beschrijving
Middelen
Opmerkingen

Computerprogrammeurs

RISICO VAN AUTOMATISERING
BEREKEND
52%
risiconiveau
PEILING
47%
Gebaseerd op 9.017 stemmen
VRAAG NAAR ARBEID
GROEI
-10,2 %
tegen het jaar 2032
LONEN
$ 97.800
of $ 47,02 per uur
Volume
132.740
vanaf 2022
SAMENVATTING
BAANSCORE
4,7/10

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Stem
Opmerkingen (181)

Risico van automatisering

52% (Matig Risico)

Gemiddeld Risico (41-60%): Beroepen met een gemiddeld risico op automatisering omvatten meestal routinetaken, maar vereisen nog steeds enige menselijke beoordeling en interactie.

Meer informatie over wat deze score is en hoe deze wordt berekend, is beschikbaar hier.

Enkele vrij belangrijke kwaliteiten van de baan zijn moeilijk te automatiseren:

  • Sociale Waarneming

  • Originaliteit

Gebruikerspeiling

47% kans op volledige automatisering binnen de komende twee decennia

Onze bezoekers hebben gestemd dat ze niet zeker weten of dit beroep zal worden geautomatiseerd. Deze beoordeling wordt verder ondersteund door het berekende automatiseringsrisiconiveau, dat een schatting geeft van 52% kans op automatisering.

Wat denk je dat het risico van automatisering is?

Wat is de kans dat Computerprogrammeurs binnen de komende 20 jaar vervangen zal worden door robots of kunstmatige intelligentie?






Gevoel

De volgende grafiek(en) zijn opgenomen waar er een aanzienlijke hoeveelheid stemmen is om betekenisvolle gegevens te leveren. Deze visuele weergaven tonen de resultaten van gebruikerspolls in de loop van de tijd, en geven een belangrijke indicatie van sentimenttrends.

Sentiment over tijd (per kwartaal)

Gevoel over tijd (jaarlijks)

Groei

Zeer trage groei in vergelijking met andere beroepen.

Het aantal 'Computer Programmers' vacatures zal naar verwachting afnemen met 10,2% tegen 2032

Totale werkgelegenheid en geschatte vacatures

* Gegevens van het Bureau of Labor Statistics voor de periode tussen 2021 en 2031
Bijgewerkte prognoses zijn verschuldigd 09-2023.

Lonen

Zeer hoog betaald vergeleken met andere beroepen

In 2022 was het mediane jaarloon voor 'Computer Programmers' $ 97.800, of $ 47 per uur

'Computer Programmers' werden 111,2% hoger betaald dan het nationale mediane loon, dat op $ 46.310 stond.

Lonen in de loop van de tijd

* Gegevens van het Bureau voor Arbeidsstatistieken

Volume

Groter bereik van werkgelegenheidskansen in vergelijking met andere beroepen

Vanaf 2022 waren er 132.740 mensen in dienst als 'Computer Programmers' binnen de Verenigde Staten.

Dit vertegenwoordigt ongeveer 0,09% van de werkende bevolking in het hele land.

Anders gezegd, ongeveer 1 op de 1 duizend mensen is werkzaam als 'Computer Programmers'.

Functieomschrijving

Maak, wijzig en test de code en scripts waarmee computerapplicaties kunnen draaien. Werk vanuit specificaties opgesteld door software- en webontwikkelaars of andere individuen. Mogelijk ontwikkelen en schrijven van computerprogramma's om specifieke documenten, gegevens en informatie op te slaan, te lokaliseren en op te halen.

SOC Code: 15-1251.00

Middelen

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Opmerkingen

Laat een reactie achter

MR zegt
Hi! From which year do you use data from and when was the calculations performed?
Apr 18, 2024 at 09:54
Admin zegt
The calculations were last performed in January 2023, the data was the most recent data available at the time from O*NET

See more info here:
https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/about-our-calculations
Apr 18, 2024 at 10:14
Darin Beaudreau (Matig) zegt
20 years is a reasonable timeline for a large portion of software engineering to be able to be automated, but the problem in replacing programmers isn't AI's ability to reason, but in the customers themselves. To be able to fully replace engineers, a customer needs to be able to accurately describe their requirements, and anyone who works in that field will tell you that customers are idiots.

I think web development will be the first variation of software development that is automated because the majority of all web development is the same and very basic. Things like embedded, robotics, and applications programming will take much longer and require AI to be able to see the whole of an application in a single context to avoid a plateau effect where you get increasingly more errors due to loss of information regarding the program's architecture.
Apr 02, 2024 at 04:16
user (Matig) zegt
I've been a software engineer for over 10 years. This is really only the beginning. The pace of innovation in AI will only increase. We are already using Github Copilot at work and AI gives amazing code reviews. Outsourcing is now much more effective. Less engineers are needed already because of AI. With "Devin", we are seeing a tiny glimpse of what is to come in the next 20 years. I'm going back to school and transitioning out of the industry over the next 2-3 years.
Mar 27, 2024 at 02:00
maikelos272@gmail.com (Zeer waarschijnlijk) zegt
Although AI is a tool for programmers, the better it gets the more of our job it can perfrom. It is unfathomable to me that AI will not be able to do a programmers job really well within the next 20 years. I reckon it will happen in 10. The only hope I have is that rather than the job market deminishing, its output will grow exponentially and programmers will grow to be supervrisors of AI. Nontheless at some point AI will be able to write apps and programs based purely on Natural language input. Albeit the code might be far from perfect at the beggining it will only get better.
Mar 20, 2024 at 08:54
Stechkin zegt
Check out Devin. It solved 13% of the Git Hub problems. Its scary good.
Mar 24, 2024 at 11:03
ezkha (Onzeker) zegt
So I've heard about this AI "Devin", which is apparently capable of programming and distributing an entire application from scratch to release; but it is absolutely terrible at managing issues and fixing bugs. If my source is credible, it's 20% efficient compared to 80% with a human.

I think it'll probably improve and replace programming. Though maybe issues and solving bugs, in particular, will take a while to replace.
Mar 14, 2024 at 04:38
user (Zeer waarschijnlijk) zegt
AI has been on the rise in the past several years, and is likely to continue growing rapidly. Within the past years what has been possible has greatly increased many magnitudes, and several AI tools that can accomplish coding means have been created, and are being greatly invested on and improved. With the release of "Dave" and companies like "Magic.dev" I can foresee this being a greatly human reduced job in the next 2-6 years.
Mar 14, 2024 at 11:47
S (Zeer waarschijnlijk) zegt
ChatGPT is already proficient. It will at the very least heavily reduce the amount of software engineers required
Mar 04, 2024 at 05:05
Johnifer (Geen kans) zegt
Those who say that AI will completely take over CS don't know CS.
Feb 28, 2024 at 12:55
Hot Take zegt
Finally, someone with a brain! CS is developing AI and we will always be necessary to supervise it and align with human goals.
Mar 27, 2024 at 12:06
Jon (Onzeker) zegt
I see that most people voting with certainty on this topic don't understand how this job works, or they are just average or bellow average professionals.

GPT really gives you solutions for complex tasks but on minor details it's going to invent some buggy solution ultimately creating more bugs than helping you.

That's why you really need to understand the tool/system that you're working with.

Feb 26, 2024 at 06:40
kir (Laag) zegt
AI has a difficult time with complex use cases, architecture, and requirements from clients.
Feb 12, 2024 at 02:35
Michal zegt
That is true but, even if it only does programming really well and never gets around to understanding requirements and architecture well, which I think it will, then it will still take a lot of jobs.
Mar 20, 2024 at 08:56
Rin (Zeer waarschijnlijk) zegt
For being beings based on technology, programs, and algorithms, computer programming will be able to replicate itself and take over its own recreation processes.
Feb 06, 2024 at 04:25
Ryan (Matig) zegt
Basic functionality in software is easily automated. Building entirely new systems might be more difficult. If we develop AGI, then any job done at a keyboard is gone, but if that proves more difficult than expected then high level system design and development jobs might last a bit longer.
Jan 22, 2024 at 07:29
Bryan Schmidt (Matig) zegt
So much of what we do as computer programmers can be automated.

My job is to interpret what the product owners want, and convert that into code. Currently, I have transitioned into using AI to help me with most of the code, while I'm still guiding the architecture, code style, and overall codebase.

It won't be long until AI could handle most of if not all of that as well.
Jan 20, 2024 at 10:06
John (Zeer waarschijnlijk) zegt
Because chatgpt can already make script, sure its a wrong sometimes. but just imagine but it will be like in 20 years.
Dec 23, 2023 at 12:17
Auditormadness9 (Zeer waarschijnlijk) zegt
It already wrote like 20 scripts for me that completely worked as expected.
Dec 11, 2023 at 10:23
Sequenze5517 (Laag) zegt
Because Computer Programmers made and update AI. Logically, the AI will not update himself.
Nov 29, 2023 at 01:20
me (Geen kans) zegt
coding requires a lot of skill and thinking which cannot be replaced by ai
Nov 28, 2023 at 03:08
matin (Laag) zegt
robots make robots?
Nov 13, 2023 at 10:04
Leo (Zeer waarschijnlijk) zegt
so clearly they already have stuff like Chat GPT that tells you code,
Nov 06, 2023 at 02:45
Anonymous (Onzeker) zegt
As it stands, an AI gets its information from the internet. That means that much of the code it acquires at this point when you ask for sample code or something similar will likely be from GitHub or some similar website. It doesn't have to understand the workings of the code, it just needs to know what to look for and dispense it to you. Sometimes the code may not even work. AI could eventually understand programming and then it'll be a different story, but AI doesn't really KNOW much of what it says, it just give a definition from the huge databases it has access to.
Nov 01, 2023 at 08:57

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