טייסים מסחריים

LudditeCSci (סביר להניח מאוד) 16 hours ago

The idea that the "public won't accept it" or "government won't go for it" is naive over a 20 year timescale. The question isn't "Will it happen imminently?"; there's a large emphasis on the two decades. Between "15 minute cities", limited travel, Net Zero, and carbon taxes (i.e. UN policies based on SDGs), it's unclear if there will be a travel industry in 20 years, let alone a need for large numbers of commercial pilots.

Rightly or wrongly, with the number of DEI initiatives at present and several recent high-profile transport incidents caused by user error, I foresee many people choosing AI over humans in life-or-death professions. I make no judgement on that, personally, but I know a lot of people are bearish on such hiring policies, especially in critical industries. As for the technology, one only need look at the progress of AI in automated driving since 2020 to see that self-flying planes will almost surely exist by 2045. (I'm a computer scientist, by the way. My own job will be gone too -- and much sooner. I'm opposed to AI on principle and I've grown to hate my own field. But I've also got to be honest about it because I understand where we are.)

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Eryk Kowalczyk 9 days ago

Autopilot is already a large part of flight, and as AI gets better, there could be a chance. Even though AI is not perfect, and some people don't trust it, remember that many incidents, if not a majority, such as Air France 447, resulted in human error. Pilot error accounts for about 60 to 80% of plane crashes.

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Dominic Fernandez (אין סיכוי) 2 months ago

The tech is just not there yet, federal laws definitely would not condone it, and public support behind such a rushed technology would probably be non-existent.

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A.W. (מתונה) 3 months ago

All a pilot does is to to take off, landing, and then the rest is auto-pilot.

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Oli (נמוך) 3 months ago

People will not trust to get on a plane from the current generations unless there is a qualified pilot onboard. Many people already have fear of flying and this would just make it worse for them since there is no real human being in the cockpit and it is controlled remotely. Additionally, it is just generally safer for a real human pilot as they are able to use their experience and training across emergency situations. For example, AI is very procedural and programmed to do exactly what manuals and procedures say, but what if there is a catastrophic emergency that requires quick-thinking? Many emergencies are procedural however there are exceptions when a pilots own experience is necessary for the safety of others. Plus, a real pilot is going to have empathy and adrenaline in a emergency situation as they also want to save themselves.. A remote controlled plane or AI powered plane won't have this and it will be a completely different situation. Maybe 20-30 years there could be single-pilot operations but no full automation.

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T (אין סיכוי) 3 months ago

No human being will get on an airplane without a human being AT LEAST as a backup. APUs are constantly INOP in commercial aviation. APUs are not bullet proof and even if they were a human will always be in an airplane flying other human beings.

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Jim 7 months ago

There is a huge shortage of pilots. This and AI could help the case for a reduction to a single pilot per flight (easy profit booster). Not looking like a great career option for the amount of stress, pressure, and training required.

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Overall equivalent (אין סיכוי) 8 months ago

FAA
Passenger airlines no chance in 20 years
Cargo would be the first
Pilot unions are very strong
Single pilot flights are possible with a copilot remote as needed.

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CFIguy (אין סיכוי) 8 months ago

We already have the technology to automate aviation, but I see no chance of it happening in the next few decades. The FAA moves slowly, airlines are controlled by pilot unions, and the AI would much much more real world training to understand emergency situations before it would be trusted with autonomously flying an aircraft. Maybe by 2060 we might see some planes go automated, but until then it is still a very rewarding and fun career to pursue.

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Luca (נמוך) 11 months ago

requires human interference in accidents and emergencies
have to be 1000% reliable in order to not cause problems
can scare public away

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Felipe (נמוך) 11 months ago

Simple. The pilot is the hierarchy within the system. Today, AI can indeed perform even complex tasks, but you can never trust an AI 100% to pilot an airplane. The critical factor is simple: if there is any change or problem with the aircraft, a pilot can act quickly by not strictly following airline protocols. Following protocols 100% does not always guarantee safety.

Examples like TACA Flight 110, where a Boeing 737-300 lost both engines, show this. Instead of following the manual and returning, the pilots landed on the grass ahead, which was the right decision. This applies to many situations. In the case of United Airlines Flight 232, it's another example. Following the correct protocols isn't always the right choice and can sometimes prevent worse tragedies.

In the United case, let's suppose an AI is in command and the plane loses all three hydraulic systems. The company's manual doesn't cover a situation where all engines are lost. At that moment, what would the AI do? Even if it follows the tower controller's voice commands correctly, it’s impossible to determine the flight's fate because there's no human inside. However, this isn't to say that following protocols is always wrong. It’s just a reminder to follow protocols, but if you ever need to break them, it should be in a life-or-death situation.

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Furry Racoon Cat (מתונה) 12 months ago

With autopilot becoming more prevalent and the rise of autonomous navigation systems, there is a chance that pilots could be replaced.

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Joe (אין סיכוי) 12 months ago

Pilots cannot be replaced by AI since there are many skills that AI can't possess like complex decision making and most passengers wouldn't trust AI to operate their aircraft. 20 years from now, many of the newer planes that fly nowadays will still be flying in 2040. Another consideration is the single pilot operation, which is the primary focus right now which will not likely happen before the 2040s. Pilots have minimal risk of being automated.

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Stirling Martin (נמוך) 1 year ago

Cybersecurity could make this impossible.

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Ron Hounslow (אין סיכוי) 1 year ago

All large commercial aircraft currently in production and coming off the production line today need two pilots for operation during crucial stages of flight. It will take a decade plus plus for the regulatory requirement to change,

Many of those airframes are going to be in service for the next fifteen to twenty years plus.

What you may see in the next decade or so is a reduction in the number of pilots required by the industry overall if single pilot in the cruise becomes allowable on Long Haul Flights.

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do not want to say (נמוך) 1 year ago

because eve with ai there will be thousand of plane in the sky at one time and one miscalculation from the ai on a plane can cause it to crash

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EK1934 (בלתי ברור) 1 year ago

The thing is, it will take a long time to develop and for AI to get approved by the FAA

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Miles (נמוך) 1 year ago

commercial pilots have some instances of ai but commercial pilots take years of training naps and skills to complete
And ai would need to learn a lot of controls and would need precise management one small move and the ai is done.

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Mani salah (נמוך) 1 year ago

The artificial intllegence can't replace the human's emotion and it's way of thinking in some situations and must be supervised by a trained and experienced pilot

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Aranyak Maitra (מתונה) 1 year ago

The development of automated and remote flying technology for military equipment can be a game changer for civil aviation industry. Automation has already reduced the number of pilots from 3 to 2.

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